TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Sobisek vs Jakub Stolfa 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511711114114711
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:08 and never touched: 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timeJakub Stolfa to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Jakub Stolfa @ 1.53 · Won
How it is goingMartin Sobisek above · Jakub Stolfa below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 82 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Jakub Stolfa at 62.8%
82 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sobisek 8–19 Jakub Stolfa Martin Sobisek has won 8 of their 27 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 20:08Sent to Pro: Jakub Stolfa @ 1.53 · Won
62.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 2.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Stolfa
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-19 in 27
Stolfa
Correct
gap of 11 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobisek 1612 vs Stolfa 1672
Stolfa
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobisek 40% vs Stolfa 80%
Stolfa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobisek 60% vs Stolfa 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobisek -3 · Stolfa -1
Sobisek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Stolfa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stolfa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobisek 2.375 / Stolfa 1.533
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Stolfa)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13273754
Sobisek2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 116 of 302
Down 0–1, comes back23% 39 of 170
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 107
Stolfa1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 106 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it100% 46 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it82% 74 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSobisek4wins
AwayStolfa6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStolfa leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobisek100%4 of 4
AwayStolfa100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobisek4Stolfa6n = 10Stolfa took 6 of 10
S2Sobisek3Stolfa7n = 10Stolfa took 7 of 10
S3Sobisek4Stolfa6n = 10Stolfa took 6 of 10
S4Sobisek1Stolfa5n = 6Stolfa took 5 of 6
S5Sobisek3Stolfa1n = 4Sobisek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricSobisekStolfaSobisek − StolfaBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.939.8−5.9per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobisekStolfaBasisWin rate · lifetime563 / 1194 vs 238 / 44447.2%53.6%563 / 1194 vs 238 / 444Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StolfaSobisek 2.38/Stolfa 1.53
Hit
What we said
62.8%
Stolfa · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Jakub Stolfa @ 1.53 · Won
What happened
2–3
Stolfa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 9 · 13:30M. Sobisek4021311862J. Stolfa511111711113
WOct 9 · 11:30M. Sobisek491110116113J. Stolfa4341271192
LOct 4 · 16:30M. Sobisek2458110J. Stolfa351111133
LOct 4 · 12:30M. Sobisek397121191J. Stolfa4511149113
LOct 1 · 20:00M. Sobisek1610420J. Stolfa341211113
WSep 29 · 10:00M. Sobisek50111195143J. Stolfa47671111122
LSep 29 · 08:00M. Sobisek2410770J. Stolfa341211113
LSep 24 · 08:00M. Sobisek196760J. Stolfa331111113
WSep 18 · 08:30M. Sobisek40113114113J. Stolfa4391161162
WSep 10 · 19:30M. Sobisek3811115113J. Stolfa33991141
M. Sobisek10
WOct 11 · 20:58M. Volf2.381216731M. Sobisek1.53141411113LOct 11 · 19:00M. Sobisek1.5081181192M. Volf2.50117115113LOct 11 · 18:00V. Cermak2.101121311113M. Sobisek1.67111015732LOct 9 · 13:30M. Sobisek2.0021311862J. Stolfa1.731111711113WOct 9 · 12:30J. Pozarsky2.5066111472M. Sobisek1.501111712113WOct 9 · 11:30M. Sobisek2.251110116113J. Stolfa1.5741271192WOct 9 · 10:30J. Svoboda2.1011641142M. Sobisek1.67811113113WOct 9 · 09:30M. Sobisek2.0011117113D. Tuma1.73381151LOct 9 · 08:30D. Tuma1.911214113M. Sobisek1.80101290WOct 9 · 07:30M. Sobisek1.731111113J. Svoboda2.009980
J. Stolfa10
LOct 11 · 19:30J. Stolfa2.75113491V. Cermak1.4031111113WOct 11 · 18:30M. Volf2.1077110J. Stolfa1.671111133WOct 11 · 17:30J. Stolfa1.651151012113M. Volf2.10611121022WOct 11 · 16:00J. Stolfa3.251381111113M. Sychra1.3315118972WOct 11 · 15:30M. Volf2.001412291J. Stolfa1.73161011113WOct 11 · 14:00J. Stolfa2.6311611113V. Dvorak1.44911961LOct 10 · 13:05J. Stolfa5.0021250J. Zuzanek1.141114113WOct 10 · 12:00J. Stolfa2.251113113J. Zuzanek1.5791180WOct 9 · 13:30M. Sobisek2.0021311862J. Stolfa1.731111711113LOct 9 · 11:30M. Sobisek2.251110116113J. Stolfa1.5741271192
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