TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Daniel Morawiec vs Piotr Gumulinski 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesPOC · Poczesna
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141171210––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:44 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePiotr Gumulinski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
55 points played in total.
Set by set
1141171210––––
H2H Daniel Morawiec 10–6 Piotr Gumulinski Piotr Gumulinski has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:4454.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Gumulinski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Morawiec
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Morawiec 1378 vs Gumulinski 1339
Morawiec
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Morawiec 80% vs Gumulinski 40%
Morawiec
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Morawiec 50% vs Gumulinski 30%
Morawiec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Morawiec +4 · Gumulinski -1
Morawiec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Gumulinski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gumulinski form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMorawiec 1.90 / Gumulinski 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Gumulinski)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13269928
Morawiec1.90
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Oct 03) · back after a break
Won last 4
oldest → newest56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As underdog36% won 22 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back16% 6 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Gumulinski1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 08)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 380 of 609
Up 2–0, closes it95% 171 of 181
Up 1–0, closes it78% 256 of 330
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMorawiec5wins
AwayGumulinski5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMorawiec80%4 of 5
AwayGumulinski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Morawiec5Gumulinski4n = 9Morawiec took 5 of 9
S2Morawiec7Gumulinski2n = 9Morawiec took 7 of 9
S3Morawiec6Gumulinski3n = 9Morawiec took 6 of 9
S4Morawiec1Gumulinski6n = 7Gumulinski took 6 of 7
S5Morawiec2Gumulinski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMorawiecGumulinskiM − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match41.039.9+1.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMorawiecGumulinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime239 / 445 vs 1040 / 183553.7%56.7%239 / 445 vs 1040 / 1835Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GumulinskiMorawiec 1.90/Gumulinski 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Gumulinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Morawiec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 10 · 05:55D. Morawiec341111123P. Gumulinski2147100
WOct 3 · 15:05D. Morawiec53111188153P. Gumulinski51881111132
LAug 1 · 16:20D. Morawiec399911101P. Gumulinski4311119123
LAug 1 · 06:45D. Morawiec28413471P. Gumulinski44111111113
LMar 21 · 16:30D. Morawiec51711111392P. Gumulinski47115515113
WMar 21 · 10:30D. Morawiec371112143P. Gumulinski30810120
WFeb 14 · 16:30D. Morawiec43611114113P. Gumulinski4611791182
LFeb 14 · 10:30D. Morawiec4111118652P. Gumulinski49791111113
WOct 18 · 10:55D. Morawiec43111011113P. Gumulinski28512561
D. Morawiec10
WOct 3 · 16:40D. Morawiec1.201151212173R. Wojcik4.204111410152WOct 3 · 15:05P. Gumulinski2.20881111132D. Morawiec1.61111188153WOct 3 · 14:20D. Swider1.6381111882D. Morawiec2.16115811113WOct 3 · 13:30D. Morawiec1.55119811113R. Idaczyk2.2541111262LOct 3 · 12:20D. Morawiec2.6089100P. Jedrzejak1.421111123WOct 3 · 10:40D. Morawiec1.9081111113R. Wojcik1.81117471LOct 3 · 09:05R. Idaczyk2.35111176113D. Morawiec1.5079111162LOct 3 · 08:20P. Jedrzejak1.5681113163D. Morawiec2.3011811141LOct 3 · 07:30D. Morawiec1.951P. Gumulinski1.763LOct 3 · 06:20D. Morawiec—411751D. Swider—11611113
P. Gumulinski10
LOct 8 · 08:00P. Gumulinski1.575960A. Burkacki2.251111113WOct 8 · 06:45P. Gumulinski1.60141459113P. Kurek2.151212111172LOct 8 · 05:35P. Gumulinski2.1312460K. Hetnar1.561411113LOct 8 · 04:25M. Cesarz2.42713911123P. Gumulinski1.511111116102WOct 8 · 03:35P. Gumulinski1.401110911113O. Sokolowski2.7561211682LOct 8 · 02:45P. Gumulinski1.7489111472P. Kurek1.951111912113LOct 8 · 01:10P. Gumulinski1.35115111042T. Wrzalik2.95611612113WOct 8 · 00:00P. Gumulinski2.02117612113A. Burkacki1.72911111092LOct 3 · 15:05P. Gumulinski2.20881111132D. Morawiec1.61111188153WOct 3 · 07:30D. Morawiec1.951P. Gumulinski1.763
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