TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
David Mikula vs Zbynek Zientek 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA16 · Havlickuv Brod
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
51113117111113––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:24 and never touched: 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeDavid Mikula to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Mikula above · Zbynek Zientek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 82 set 4, 11-13 · our read held David Mikula at 57.4%
82 points played in total.
H2H David Mikula 10–7 Zbynek Zientek Zbynek Zientek has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:2457.4%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 2.6pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Mikula
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-7 in 17
Mikula
Wrong
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mikula 1353 vs Zientek 1285
Mikula
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mikula 40% vs Zientek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mikula 60% vs Zientek 40%
Mikula
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mikula +1 · Zientek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Mikula) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mikula form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMikula 1.666 / Zientek 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Mikula)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13268389
Mikula1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 07)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 37 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it89% 32 of 36
Zientek2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 07)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 83 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back32% 30 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back20% 10 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMikula7wins
AwayZientek3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMikula leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMikula85.7%6 of 7
AwayZientek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mikula7Zientek3n = 10Mikula took 7 of 10
S2Mikula4Zientek6n = 10Zientek took 6 of 10
S3Mikula6Zientek4n = 10Mikula took 6 of 10
S4Mikula3Zientek4n = 7Zientek took 4 of 7
S5Mikula3Zientek0n = 3Mikula took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMikulaZientekM − ZBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.635.6+2.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMikulaZientekBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 356 vs 205 / 42647.2%48.1%168 / 356 vs 205 / 426Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MikulaMikula 1.67/Zientek 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.4%
Mikula · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zientek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 08:58D. Mikula47861111113Z. Zientek4511116892
LOct 7 · 08:30D. Mikula35117891Z. Zientek3631111113
LOct 2 · 09:30D. Mikula349311111Z. Zientek4311118133
WOct 2 · 08:30D. Mikula43116114113Z. Zientek4571191172
WSep 29 · 08:59D. Mikula48117118113Z. Zientek4671181192
LSep 29 · 08:30D. Mikula196850Z. Zientek331111113
WSep 19 · 18:30D. Mikula4311138113Z. Zientek348111141
WSep 15 · 08:00D. Mikula331111113Z. Zientek178540
WAug 24 · 18:30D. Mikula4113116113Z. Zientek341191131
WJul 15 · 07:00D. Mikula331111113Z. Zientek239770
D. Mikula10
LOct 10 · 19:00D. Tyn2.101311117113D. Mikula1.6715871192WOct 7 · 08:58Z. Zientek1.8011116892D. Mikula1.91861111113LOct 7 · 08:30D. Mikula1.61117891Z. Zientek2.2031111113WOct 7 · 07:00D. Mikula2.2012511113A. Virag1.611011781LOct 7 · 06:00P. Varecha1.531311113D. Mikula2.3811680LOct 2 · 09:30D. Mikula1.539311111Z. Zientek2.3811118133WOct 2 · 08:30D. Mikula1.53116114113Z. Zientek2.3871191172WOct 2 · 07:00D. Mikula2.50119117113M. Kolek1.5091161172WOct 2 · 06:00P. Varecha1.40281191D. Mikula2.7511117113WSep 29 · 08:59Z. Zientek2.2071181192D. Mikula1.61117118113
Z. Zientek10
LOct 10 · 19:30Z. Zientek2.1012101171J. Peter1.6714129113LOct 7 · 08:58Z. Zientek1.8011116892D. Mikula1.91861111113WOct 7 · 08:30D. Mikula1.61117891Z. Zientek2.2031111113LOct 7 · 07:30Z. Zientek2.00961191P. Varecha1.7311112113LOct 7 · 06:30A. Virag1.5011116113Z. Zientek2.50741161WOct 5 · 13:11Z. Zientek1.50913811113M. Levicky2.50111111782LOct 5 · 12:00J. Stach1.61911115113Z. Zientek2.2011491182WOct 2 · 09:30D. Mikula1.539311111Z. Zientek2.3811118133LOct 2 · 08:30D. Mikula1.53116114113Z. Zientek2.3871191172LSep 29 · 08:59Z. Zientek2.2071181192D. Mikula1.61117118113
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