TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykola Pohorilyi vs Oleh Torianyk 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117611211811––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:53 and never touched: 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeOleh Torianyk to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Oleh Torianyk @ 1.50 · Won
How it is goingMykola Pohorilyi above · Oleh Torianyk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 67 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Oleh Torianyk at 64.1%
67 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Pohorilyi 25–33 Oleh Torianyk Mykola Pohorilyi has won 25 of their 58 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 14h before this match
Pohorilyi beat Torianyk 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pick
Sealed 19:53Sent to Pro: Oleh Torianyk @ 1.50 · Won
64.1%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 2.6pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Torianyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
25-33 in 58
Torianyk
Correct
gap of 8 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pohorilyi 1458 vs Torianyk 1552
Torianyk
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pohorilyi 60% vs Torianyk 20%
Pohorilyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pohorilyi 30% vs Torianyk 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pohorilyi +1 · Torianyk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Torianyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Torianyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPohorilyi 2.50 / Torianyk 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Torianyk)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266217
Pohorilyi2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog25% won 21 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back6% 3 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 37
Torianyk1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite69% won 99 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it94% 59 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it82% 78 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePohorilyi5wins
AwayTorianyk5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePohorilyi66.7%4 of 6
AwayTorianyk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pohorilyi6Torianyk4n = 10Pohorilyi took 6 of 10
S2Pohorilyi5Torianyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Pohorilyi3Torianyk7n = 10Torianyk took 7 of 10
S4Pohorilyi7Torianyk2n = 9Pohorilyi took 7 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPohorilyiTorianykP − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.239.9−1.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPohorilyiTorianykBasisWin rate · lifetime359 / 613 vs 280 / 50658.6%55.3%359 / 613 vs 280 / 506Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TorianykPohorilyi 2.50/Torianyk 1.50
Hit
What we said
64.1%
Torianyk · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Oleh Torianyk @ 1.50 · Won
What happened
1–3
Torianyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 15:30M. Pohorilyi55111713143O. Torianyk4971515121
WSep 5 · 07:30M. Pohorilyi4111118113O. Torianyk28941141
WSep 4 · 15:30M. Pohorilyi4071111113O. Torianyk29117561
LAug 28 · 07:30M. Pohorilyi4111941252O. Torianyk529111110113
LAug 27 · 09:00M. Pohorilyi36911881O. Torianyk4211911113
WAug 26 · 13:00M. Pohorilyi3912511113O. Torianyk381011981
LAug 21 · 07:00M. Pohorilyi30119821O. Torianyk4291111113
LAug 20 · 12:30M. Pohorilyi183780O. Torianyk331111113
WJul 9 · 08:00M. Pohorilyi4011511133O. Torianyk376119111
LJul 9 · 07:00M. Pohorilyi4261181162O. Torianyk49117119113
M. Pohorilyi10
WOct 9 · 06:30M. Pohorilyi1.361111113Y. Zvolynskyi3.006670WOct 8 · 17:23I. Dubinin2.635480M. Pohorilyi1.441111113LOct 8 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.531212111192S. Sideltsev2.38141452113WOct 8 · 15:30M. Pohorilyi2.50111713143O. Torianyk1.5071515121WOct 8 · 14:00M. Pohorilyi1.441111113I. Dubinin2.639940LOct 8 · 13:00M. Pohorilyi1.8389111152P. Shulhachyk1.83111184113LOct 1 · 16:30I. Dubinin2.63111189113M. Pohorilyi1.4497111192LOct 1 · 15:00M. Pohorilyi1.501111891S. Sideltsev2.5013911113LOct 1 · 13:30M. Pohorilyi1.6771190P. Shulhachyk2.101113113LOct 1 · 12:00M. Pohorilyi2.7579130P. Kolesnik1.401111153
O. Torianyk10
WOct 9 · 06:00S. Sideltsev2.3851191172O. Torianyk1.53118114113LOct 8 · 15:30M. Pohorilyi2.50111713143O. Torianyk1.5071515121WOct 8 · 14:30O. Torianyk1.361113113P. Shulhachyk3.0061180LOct 8 · 13:30S. Sideltsev2.751112113O. Torianyk1.4091060LOct 8 · 12:30O. Torianyk1.33711871I. Dubinin3.2511511113LSep 27 · 10:08O. Torianyk2.2576100M. Levytskii1.571111123WSep 27 · 08:30M. Levytskii1.445111181O. Torianyk2.6311813113LSep 27 · 07:30O. Torianyk1.8381411522M. Denysenko1.831112911113WSep 27 · 06:30P. Kolesnik2.63811814102O. Torianyk1.441191112123LSep 27 · 05:30O. Torianyk3.25111070O. Tiutiunnyk1.331312113
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