TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Marian Melisek vs Martin Obraz 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1121311116––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:52 and never touched: 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeMarian Melisek to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMarian Melisek above · Martin Obraz below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 54 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Marian Melisek at 66.5%
54 points played in total.
H2H Marian Melisek 18–8 Martin Obraz Martin Obraz has won 8 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:5266.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 0.2pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Melisek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
18-8 in 26
Melisek
Correct
gap of 10 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melisek 1443 vs Obraz 1300
Melisek
Correct
both rated, 143 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melisek 80% vs Obraz 40%
Melisek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melisek 70% vs Obraz 40%
Melisek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melisek +1 · Obraz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Melisek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melisek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelisek 1.50 / Obraz 2.50
Signal prob.67% / 34%
Edge (Melisek)-0.2pp
Setka Cup · #13266196
Melisek1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 07)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 48 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it85% 29 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it78% 39 of 50
Obraz2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 8 days ago (Oct 01) · back after a break
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 23 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back29% 10 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back17% 3 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelisek6wins
AwayObraz4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderMelisek leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelisek66.7%4 of 6
AwayObraz50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melisek6Obraz4n = 10Melisek took 6 of 10
S2Melisek7Obraz3n = 10Melisek took 7 of 10
S3Melisek7Obraz3n = 10Melisek took 7 of 10
S4Melisek4Obraz4n = 8split evenly
S5Melisek2Obraz4n = 6Obraz took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelisekObrazM − OBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.138.6+3.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelisekObrazBasisWin rate · lifetime230 / 466 vs 148 / 34049.4%43.5%230 / 466 vs 148 / 340Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MelisekMelisek 1.50/Obraz 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.5%
Melisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Melisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 9 · 09:15M. Melisek4011118822M. Obraz43731111113
WMay 8 · 13:08M. Melisek4011117113M. Obraz35791181
LMay 8 · 11:00M. Melisek4579111172M. Obraz43111164113
WMay 2 · 06:30M. Melisek341211113M. Obraz2410590
LApr 22 · 11:00M. Melisek44111148102M. Obraz51891111123
LApr 6 · 05:15M. Melisek4471111962M. Obraz49117911113
WMar 30 · 13:30M. Melisek483111112113M. Obraz4711591482
WMar 25 · 11:30M. Melisek341111123M. Obraz2147100
WFeb 3 · 11:15M. Melisek50891111113M. Obraz3811116192
WJan 27 · 11:30M. Melisek4211911113M. Obraz35911961
M. Melisek10
WOct 7 · 12:34J. Marhol1.28512361M. Melisek3.50111011113LOct 7 · 11:30M. Melisek2.106680J. Marhol1.671111113WOct 7 · 10:30M. Melisek2.10971111123M. Vorel1.67111189102WOct 7 · 09:30M. Melisek1.5041111113J. Puk2.50116761WOct 6 · 12:39O. Plyska2.10138871M. Melisek1.67111111113LOct 6 · 11:30M. Vana1.61111111113M. Melisek2.20613991WOct 6 · 11:00M. Melisek2.101111113O. Plyska1.674980LOct 6 · 10:00M. Melisek2.63113771A. Dvoracek1.4411111113WOct 3 · 17:12M. Cmil2.7586111142M. Melisek1.40111179113WOct 3 · 15:30M. Melisek1.501112139113M. Vorel2.50614111182
M. Obraz10
WOct 9 · 10:30J. Blazek1.73871141M. Obraz2.0011118113LOct 1 · 08:43M. Obraz1.83912111092P. Cizek1.831110312113WOct 1 · 08:00P. Moulis2.50791111102M. Obraz1.50111188123LOct 1 · 07:00L. Krutina1.8031113113M. Obraz1.911191191WOct 1 · 05:30P. Cizek1.44117871M. Obraz2.6361111113LSep 30 · 09:08D. Sabuka2.001214123M. Obraz1.731012100WSep 30 · 08:00M. Obraz1.8311711113D. Sabuka1.83811791LSep 30 · 06:30P. Cizek1.611111113M. Obraz2.206890LSep 30 · 06:00A. Dvoracek1.615111112113M. Obraz2.2011741452WSep 24 · 12:13M. Obraz2.2011611113M. Vorel1.61711761
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