TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Krzysztof Schaniel vs Milosz Cesarz 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
5111210113119––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:20 and never touched: 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Schaniel to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKrzysztof Schaniel above · Milosz Cesarz below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 72 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Krzysztof Schaniel at 67.3%
72 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Schaniel 13–6 Milosz Cesarz Milosz Cesarz has won 6 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2067.3%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 2.0pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Schaniel
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-6 in 19
Schaniel
Correct
gap of 7 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schaniel 1318 vs Cesarz 1209
Schaniel
Correct
both rated, 109 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schaniel 40% vs Cesarz 60%
Cesarz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schaniel 60% vs Cesarz 40%
Schaniel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Schaniel +1 · Cesarz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Schaniel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cesarz form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchaniel 1.444 / Cesarz 2.625
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Schaniel)-2.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13264540
Schaniel1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 198 of 343
Up 2–0, closes it90% 93 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it74% 145 of 196
Cesarz2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 08)
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog26% won 67 of 261
Down 0–1, comes back13% 24 of 180
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchaniel7wins
AwayCesarz3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSchaniel leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchaniel66.7%6 of 9
AwayCesarzn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schaniel9Cesarz1n = 10Schaniel took 9 of 10
S2Schaniel5Cesarz5n = 10split evenly
S3Schaniel4Cesarz6n = 10Cesarz took 6 of 10
S4Schaniel4Cesarz5n = 9Cesarz took 5 of 9
S5Schaniel3Cesarz1n = 4Schaniel took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchanielCesarzS − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match41.237.9+3.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchanielCesarzBasisWin rate · lifetime856 / 1732 vs 148 / 53049.4%27.9%856 / 1732 vs 148 / 530Avg sets wonper match2.01.4per matchAvg pointsper match39.133.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SchanielSchaniel 1.44/Cesarz 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Schaniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Schaniel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 09:00K. Schaniel48111214113M. Cesarz386141261
LOct 2 · 04:30K. Schaniel35127791M. Cesarz43101111113
LSep 25 · 13:30K. Schaniel3911712542M. Cesarz529111011113
WSep 25 · 07:30K. Schaniel46111176113M. Cesarz4449111192
LAug 25 · 03:30K. Schaniel34117971M. Cesarz4071111113
WAug 24 · 21:30K. Schaniel46111158113M. Cesarz4055111182
WAug 21 · 21:00K. Schaniel52813911113M. Cesarz46111111762
WAug 21 · 16:35K. Schaniel331111113M. Cesarz248970
WMay 8 · 03:10K. Schaniel4011711113M. Cesarz28911171
WOct 29 · 08:10K. Schaniel3911116113M. Cesarz24641131
K. Schaniel10
WOct 9 · 17:20K. Schaniel1.401111113R. Adach2.757750LOct 9 · 16:15K. Juszczyk1.8091111113K. Schaniel1.91114271WOct 8 · 17:05J. Nowak3.806138121K. Schaniel1.23111111143LOct 8 · 15:55K. Schaniel1.6261161162P. Slosarczyk2.20113118113LOct 8 · 14:45J. Kaczmarek2.5681112113K. Schaniel1.461161071LOct 8 · 13:30W. Glanowski2.32811611113K. Schaniel1.5511411762WOct 8 · 11:55J. Badura1.87781141K. Schaniel1.8311116113WOct 8 · 11:05J. Kaczmarek2.15117841K. Schaniel1.6491111113WOct 8 · 09:55K. Schaniel1.681011711113P. Slosarczyk2.0512911752WOct 8 · 08:45J. Nowak2.658680K. Schaniel1.431111113
M. Cesarz10
WOct 9 · 16:55O. Jadach1.226270M. Cesarz4.001111113WOct 8 · 08:45M. Cesarz2.15111813113O. Sokolowski1.609161551WOct 8 · 07:10M. Cesarz2.068151111113A. Burkacki1.6911179962LOct 8 · 06:00M. Cesarz2.57135441P. Kurek1.45111111113WOct 8 · 04:25M. Cesarz2.42713911123P. Gumulinski1.511111116102LOct 8 · 03:10M. Cesarz5.803280K. Hetnar1.101111113WOct 6 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek1.5511101011102M. Cesarz2.32912123123LOct 6 · 07:35M. Cesarz3.25711781R. Idaczyk1.2711411113LOct 6 · 06:25A. Ruszkiewicz1.411111113M. Cesarz2.608480LOct 6 · 05:10O. Vincenec1.451113113M. Cesarz2.5041180
Upcoming Matches
K. Schaniel
M. Cesarz
Oct 9 · 18:10M. Cesarz2.20O. Sokolowski1.61—Oct 9 · 19:20M. Cesarz1.83R. Adach1.83—Oct 9 · 20:30M. Cesarz3.75K. Juszczyk1.25—Oct 9 · 21:20M. Cesarz2.63K. Schaniel1.44—Oct 9 · 22:55M. Cesarz4.00O. Jadach1.22—Oct 10 · 00:10M. Cesarz3.50K. Juszczyk1.28—Oct 10 · 01:25M. Cesarz1.83R. Adach1.83—Oct 10 · 02:35M. Cesarz2.38G. Sawicki1.53—
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