TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ruslan Serhyenko vs Hennadii Buianover 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11710121178111210
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:57 and never touched: 78.3% is still 78.3%
Graded at full timeRuslan Serhyenko to win
78.3%
78.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Serhyenko above · Hennadii Buianover below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 99 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Ruslan Serhyenko at 78.3%
99 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Serhyenko 2–1 Hennadii Buianover Hennadii Buianover has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:5778.3%Our read83.3%to break even at 1.20
short by 5.0pp83.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.20 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Serhyenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Serhyenko 1201 vs Buianover 1212
Buianover
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Serhyenko 20% vs Buianover 40%
Buianover
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Serhyenko 20% vs Buianover 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Serhyenko -2 · Buianover +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% · Strong (leans Serhyenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Buianover form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSerhyenko 1.20 / Buianover 4.333
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Serhyenko)-5.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13261279
Serhyenko1.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 40 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it89% 24 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it80% 32 of 40
Buianover4.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 47 of 139
Down 0–1, comes back12% 9 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSerhyenko2wins
AwayBuianover1wins
Serhyenko leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Serhyenko2Buianover1n = 3Serhyenko took 2 of 3
S2Serhyenko2Buianover1n = 3Serhyenko took 2 of 3
S3Serhyenko2Buianover1n = 3Serhyenko took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricSerhyenkoBuianoverS − BBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match29.325.3+4.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSerhyenkoBuianoverBasisWin rate · lifetime254 / 576 vs 159 / 39344.1%40.5%254 / 576 vs 159 / 393Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SerhyenkoSerhyenko 1.20/Buianover 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.3%
Serhyenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Serhyenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 5 · 18:05R. Serhyenko331111113H. Buianover204970
LOct 1 · 14:35R. Serhyenko2210750H. Buianover341211113
WSep 22 · 18:05R. Serhyenko331111113H. Buianover227690
R. Serhyenko10
LOct 8 · 15:35R. Serhyenko2.201010110V. Reva1.611212133LOct 8 · 14:05R. Serhyenko1.407990M. Karelov2.751111113WOct 8 · 12:35R. Serhyenko1.361111113V. Lukianevych3.006050LOct 6 · 18:35V. Sydorenko1.501111113R. Serhyenko2.505970LOct 6 · 17:35R. Serhyenko2.6311119942V. Slabyshev1.44941111113LOct 6 · 16:35R. Serhyenko1.61101070A. Azarov2.201212113LOct 6 · 15:05R. Serhyenko2.5011711572Y. Bielokon1.50911911113LOct 6 · 13:05R. Serhyenko3.751113121272D. Boltenkov1.2513111014113LOct 5 · 19:05V. Reva1.801111113R. Serhyenko1.919760WOct 5 · 18:05H. Buianover3.004970R. Serhyenko1.361111113
H. Buianover10
WOct 8 · 16:05H. Buianover1.83101111123M. Karelov1.831265101LOct 8 · 15:05A. Sydorenko1.3011115113H. Buianover3.40791171WOct 8 · 13:35H. Buianover2.201110117113V. Reva1.6151241142LOct 5 · 19:35A. Azarov1.4491111113H. Buianover2.63112831LOct 5 · 18:05H. Buianover3.004970R. Serhyenko1.361111113LOct 5 · 16:05V. Reva1.7361111113H. Buianover2.00115661LOct 5 · 14:05M. Karelov1.9151111113H. Buianover1.80118451WOct 5 · 13:05V. Lukianevych1.5795110H. Buianover2.251111133LOct 1 · 19:35H. Buianover2.25101111992A. Azarov1.57128411113LOct 1 · 17:35V. Leonov1.28111165123H. Buianover3.50741111102
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