TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmitriy Kim vs Mykyta Fomin 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11411139111181618
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:03 and never touched: 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeDmitriy Kim to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmitriy Kim above · Mykyta Fomin below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 16-18
Point 112 set 5, 16-18 · our read held Dmitriy Kim at 57.8%
112 points played in total.
H2H Dmitriy Kim 40–18 Mykyta Fomin Mykyta Fomin has won 18 of their 58 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 03:0357.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 2.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kim
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
40-18 in 58
Kim
Wrong
gap of 22 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kim 1484 vs Fomin 1450
Kim
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kim 60% vs Fomin 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kim 40% vs Fomin 70%
Fomin
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kim +1 · Fomin +3
Fomin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Kim) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fomin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKim 1.666 / Fomin 2.10
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kim)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13260892
Kim1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 80 of 135
Up 2–0, closes it97% 35 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it77% 50 of 65
Fomin2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 94 of 237
Down 0–1, comes back23% 28 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKim6wins
AwayFomin4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKim leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKim50%3 of 6
AwayFomin25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kim6Fomin4n = 10Kim took 6 of 10
S2Kim6Fomin4n = 10Kim took 6 of 10
S3Kim5Fomin5n = 10split evenly
S4Kim6Fomin4n = 10Kim took 6 of 10
S5Kim2Fomin3n = 5Fomin took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKimFominK − FBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.839.5+4.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKimFominBasisWin rate · lifetime493 / 1014 vs 300 / 62248.6%48.2%493 / 1014 vs 300 / 622Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KimKim 1.67/Fomin 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.8%
Kim · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 04:05D. Kim3941113113M. Fomin371161191
LOct 6 · 04:05D. Kim53111481192M. Fomin47716112113
LOct 2 · 04:05D. Kim51121211972M. Fomin531410711113
WSep 29 · 01:35D. Kim3911116113M. Fomin28531191
WSep 25 · 03:05D. Kim43101111113M. Fomin31128651
LSep 24 · 04:05D. Kim291151031M. Fomin4061112113
WSep 17 · 23:05D. Kim515101111143M. Fomin48111249122
WSep 14 · 20:25D. Kim4111118113M. Fomin24361141
WSep 11 · 00:35D. Kim44117114113M. Fomin4081171132
LSep 10 · 02:35D. Kim4811118992M. Fomin47861111113
D. Kim10
WOct 9 · 01:35D. Kim1.441211113M. Skliar2.6310670LOct 9 · 00:05D. Kim1.9111791112A. Peretiatko1.80711119113LOct 8 · 22:35D. Kim1.61106150S. Khandetskyi2.201211173WOct 8 · 21:05D. Kim1.80891111113H. Kulishov1.9111119792WOct 8 · 04:05M. Fomin2.381161191D. Kim1.5341113113LOct 8 · 02:35D. Kim1.611011681S. Khandetskyi2.2012411113LOct 8 · 00:35H. Kulishov1.731111113D. Kim2.007860LOct 7 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi2.1016119113D. Kim1.671491161WOct 7 · 21:35Y. Sokoltsov1.738690D. Kim2.001111113LOct 6 · 04:05D. Kim1.57111481192M. Fomin2.25716112113
M. Fomin10
WOct 9 · 02:05M. Fomin2.001211133A. Peretiatko1.73105110WOct 9 · 01:05M. Fomin2.10811911113H. Kulishov1.6711611992WOct 8 · 23:35M. Fomin1.916111011113M. Skliar1.8011812882LOct 8 · 21:35M. Fomin1.7311711392S. Khandetskyi2.00411911113LOct 8 · 04:05M. Fomin2.381161191D. Kim1.5341113113WOct 8 · 02:05Y. Sokoltsov1.44511571M. Fomin2.6311511113WOct 8 · 00:05M. Polysynskyi2.0011711662M. Fomin1.73511911113WOct 7 · 23:05M. Fomin1.671011116123S. Khandetskyi2.10124911102LOct 7 · 22:05H. Kulishov1.8341211113M. Fomin1.831110981WOct 6 · 04:05D. Kim1.57111481192M. Fomin2.25716112113
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