TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Daniel Vojna vs Frantisek Dvorak 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Daniel Vojna
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113611511––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:49 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Dvorak to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Vojna above · Frantisek Dvorak below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 57 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Frantisek Dvorak at 58.9%
57 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Vojna 2–1 Frantisek Dvorak Frantisek Dvorak has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:4958.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Dvorak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vojna 1364 vs Dvorak 1553
Dvorak
Correct
both rated, 189 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vojna 40% vs Dvorak 60%
Dvorak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vojna 30% vs Dvorak 60%
Dvorak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vojna +1 · Dvorak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Dvorak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVojna 2.25 / Dvorak 1.571
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Dvorak)-4.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13258052
Vojna2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog38% won 11 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back21% 3 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Dvorak1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 45 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it90% 28 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it82% 32 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeVojna2wins
AwayDvorak1wins
Vojna leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vojna1Dvorak2n = 3Dvorak took 2 of 3
S2Vojna2Dvorak1n = 3Vojna took 2 of 3
S3Vojna2Dvorak1n = 3Vojna took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricVojnaDvorakV − DBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match30.730.3+0.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVojnaDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime213 / 480 vs 164 / 29344.4%56%213 / 480 vs 164 / 293Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakVojna 2.25/Dvorak 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 23 · 11:20D. Vojna169520F. Dvorak331111113
WApr 15 · 13:55D. Vojna4381311113F. Dvorak341111391
WApr 15 · 11:50D. Vojna331111113F. Dvorak246990
D. Vojna10
LOct 7 · 13:20D. Vojna1.73711913102T. Cerveny Jr2.001151111123WOct 7 · 11:20T. Cerveny Jr1.739590D. Vojna2.001111113LOct 7 · 10:50T. Rein1.5011911113D. Vojna2.50211951LSep 24 · 13:24D. Vojna1.80811121252P. Vodal1.911191014113LSep 24 · 12:50D. Vojna2.206101171B. Budik1.5811127113WSep 24 · 11:20P. Vodal1.8316117882D. Vojna1.831491111113LSep 24 · 10:50T. Rein1.731111113D. Vojna2.007380LSep 23 · 13:20D. Vojna1.803670T. Rein1.911111113LSep 23 · 12:50D. Vojna1.8099100O. Knazik1.911111123LSep 23 · 11:20F. Dvorak2.501111113D. Vojna1.509520
F. Dvorak10
LOct 7 · 13:50T. Rein2.4511116113F. Dvorak1.48891121LOct 7 · 11:50F. Dvorak1.304590T. Rein3.401111113WOct 7 · 10:20T. Cerveny Jr2.6361151592F. Dvorak1.441181113113WSep 30 · 13:33F. Dvorak1.2812148123S. Matousch3.50101211101LSep 30 · 12:50T. Rein3.4014101111113F. Dvorak1.30121213652WSep 30 · 11:50F. Dvorak1.3091111113S. Matousch3.40118681LSep 30 · 10:20T. Cerveny Jr2.7551111113F. Dvorak1.40117781LSep 25 · 13:55F. Dvorak1.671173101S. Holik2.1071111123WSep 25 · 12:50F. Dvorak1.3011119113T. Rein3.40331181WSep 23 · 11:20F. Dvorak2.501111113D. Vojna1.509520
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