TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Karol Sulkowski vs Blazej Warpas 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12106116111012––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:37 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeBlazej Warpas to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
12106116111012––
H2H Karol Sulkowski 9–8 Blazej Warpas Blazej Warpas has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:3758.9%Our read62.1%to break even at 1.61
short by 3.2pp62.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.61 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (57%)
Warpas
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-8 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulkowski 1303 vs Warpas 1321
Warpas
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulkowski 60% vs Warpas 40%
Sulkowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulkowski 50% vs Warpas 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulkowski -1 · Warpas -3
Warpas
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Warpas) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Warpas form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulkowski 2.15 / Warpas 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Warpas)-3.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13257545
Sulkowski2.15
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 136 of 383
Down 0–1, comes back15% 36 of 234
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 128
Warpas1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 173 of 307
Up 2–0, closes it97% 87 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it83% 127 of 153
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulkowski6wins
AwayWarpas4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSulkowski leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulkowski71.4%5 of 7
AwayWarpas66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulkowski7Warpas3n = 10Sulkowski took 7 of 10
S2Sulkowski8Warpas2n = 10Sulkowski took 8 of 10
S3Sulkowski5Warpas5n = 10split evenly
S4Sulkowski2Warpas3n = 5Warpas took 3 of 5
S5Sulkowski1Warpas2n = 3Warpas took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulkowskiWarpasS − WBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.434.3+2.1per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulkowskiWarpasBasisWin rate · lifetime655 / 1329 vs 438 / 85349.3%51.4%655 / 1329 vs 438 / 853Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WarpasSulkowski 2.15/Warpas 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Warpas · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Warpas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 05:15K. Sulkowski331111113B. Warpas269890
LSep 30 · 05:15K. Sulkowski196580B. Warpas331111113
WAug 21 · 04:10K. Sulkowski42311116113B. Warpas4511791172
WAug 20 · 03:25K. Sulkowski331111113B. Warpas238960
LAug 19 · 08:10K. Sulkowski50111199102B. Warpas48861111123
WAug 13 · 06:50K. Sulkowski331111113B. Warpas248790
WAug 12 · 07:20K. Sulkowski3811115113B. Warpas28821171
LAug 11 · 04:10K. Sulkowski4891291172B. Warpas511110118113
WAug 10 · 04:10K. Sulkowski361311123B. Warpas29118100
LAug 9 · 14:20K. Sulkowski32114981B. Warpas3631111113
K. Sulkowski10
LOct 7 · 06:55K. Sulkowski3.050B. Sulkowski1.333LOct 7 · 04:10K. Sulkowski1.8511811882B. Wisniewski1.80711911113WOct 7 · 03:00K. Sulkowski1.7011511113M. Lukaszewski2.00811861WOct 6 · 00:10B. Kwodawski1.7581111972K. Sulkowski1.98114511113WOct 5 · 23:45K. Sulkowski1.65114812113J. Przewlocki2.10711111072LOct 5 · 22:55K. Sulkowski1.65119111142K. Golaszewski2.05131188113WOct 5 · 21:05K. Sulkowski1.7171112113M. Kowalczyk2.001181061WOct 5 · 20:05K. Golaszewski2.3071190K. Sulkowski1.551113113LOct 5 · 19:20M. Kowalczyk1.8111711113K. Sulkowski1.90511951LOct 5 · 17:20J. Przewlocki1.99111211113K. Sulkowski1.744101361
B. Warpas10
LOct 7 · 04:55B. Warpas2.25117861J. Lamperski1.5781111113LOct 7 · 03:50B. Warpas2.651171071B. Sulkowski1.4061112113LOct 6 · 08:35A. Sobel1.331111113B. Warpas3.108890WOct 6 · 07:20B. Warpas2.251311123J. Lamperski1.55117100WOct 6 · 06:05M. Lukaszewski2.5511990B. Warpas1.451311113WOct 6 · 04:55M. Kukawka1.9561160B. Warpas1.751113113WOct 6 · 03:25D. Wrobel1.8591090B. Warpas1.851112113LOct 5 · 08:10B. Warpas1.6098110M. Lukaszewski2.151111133LOct 5 · 06:30B. Wisniewski2.0911811113B. Warpas1.67811891LOct 5 · 05:40M. Zwolinski1.9013101112113B. Warpas1.75111281452
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