TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Rafal Niemiec vs Wojciech Urban 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119911118811117
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:07 and never touched: 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timeRafal Niemiec to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
96 points played in total.
Set by set
119911118811117
H2H Rafal Niemiec 4–4 Wojciech Urban Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:0757.2%Our read52.6%to break even at 1.90
clears by 4.6pp52.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.90 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Urban
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Niemiec 1484 vs Urban 1415
Niemiec
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Niemiec 60% vs Urban 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Niemiec 70% vs Urban 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Niemiec +1 · Urban +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Niemiec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNiemiec 1.90 / Urban 1.80
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Niemiec)+4.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13254073
Niemiec1.90
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 30 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back32% 13 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back17% 4 of 23
Urban1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 06)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 184 of 308
Up 2–0, closes it98% 79 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it76% 134 of 177
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeNiemiec4wins
AwayUrban4wins
6 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 6 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNiemiec66.7%2 of 3
AwayUrban60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Niemiec3Urban5n = 8Urban took 5 of 8
S2Niemiec4Urban4n = 8split evenly
S3Niemiec3Urban5n = 8Urban took 5 of 8
S4Niemiec2Urban4n = 6Urban took 4 of 6
S5Niemiec4Urban2n = 6Niemiec took 4 of 6
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home450%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricNiemiecUrbanN − UBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match43.645.4−1.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNiemiecUrbanBasisWin rate · lifetime183 / 293 vs 826 / 173962.5%47.5%183 / 293 vs 826 / 1739Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NiemiecNiemiec 1.90/Urban 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.2%
Niemiec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Niemiec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WOct 7 · 06:20R. Niemiec50119118113W. Urban4691181172
LSep 22 · 11:00R. Niemiec4791111882W. Urban49117911113
WSep 22 · 04:55R. Niemiec541181311113W. Urban51131111882
WSep 7 · 11:25R. Niemiec44111165113W. Urban4495111182
LAug 11 · 03:55R. Niemiec2459100W. Urban341111123
LAug 10 · 21:55R. Niemiec561111910152W. Urban56971112173
LJul 30 · 05:30R. Niemiec28610120W. Urban371112143
WJul 30 · 00:00R. Niemiec46511811113W. Urban4611611992
R. Niemiec10
WOct 7 · 07:30R. Niemiec1.5011711133O. Sokolowski2.358114111WOct 1 · 16:20W. Glanowski2.4067100R. Niemiec1.511111123LOct 1 · 15:30W. Ptak2.35711118123R. Niemiec1.53119611102WOct 1 · 14:45R. Niemiec1.35111113113J. Nowak2.95791551WOct 1 · 13:10R. Niemiec1.5011711133J. Kaczmarek2.406114111LOct 1 · 12:20R. Skotniczny1.85913811113R. Niemiec1.85111111942WOct 1 · 11:05R. Niemiec1.321111143J. Nowak3.0059120WOct 1 · 09:30R. Niemiec1.75111111113W. Ptak1.95139871LOct 1 · 08:20R. Niemiec2.05911991R. Skotniczny1.6811811113WOct 1 · 06:45R. Niemiec1.65111238113W. Glanowski2.13910111132
W. Urban10
WOct 6 · 04:40K. Kowalski3.3586111162W. Urban1.27111138113LOct 6 · 03:55P. Gumulinski1.701111113W. Urban2.008560LOct 6 · 01:30K. Adamus1.951212113W. Urban1.75101070WOct 6 · 00:50L. Oracz1.9011670W. Urban1.801311113WOct 5 · 23:30D. Dytko2.08116813102W. Urban1.687111111123WOct 5 · 22:40K. Kowalski4.6041110101W. Urban1.1711912123LOct 5 · 21:55P. Gumulinski1.391111113W. Urban2.757930WOct 5 · 19:55K. Adamus2.259990W. Urban1.551111113WOct 5 · 19:10D. Dytko2.20411121172W. Urban1.601191013113LOct 5 · 17:30L. Oracz1.821111123W. Urban1.8898100
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