TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Rehotun vs Yaroslav Stepanchuk 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
111311131214––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:22 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Stepanchuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Rehotun above · Yaroslav Stepanchuk below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 12-14
Point 74 set 3, 12-14 · our read held Yaroslav Stepanchuk at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Rehotun 1–0 Yaroslav Stepanchuk Yaroslav Stepanchuk has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 23:2254.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Rehotun
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Rehotun 1429 vs Stepanchuk 1580
Stepanchuk
Correct
both rated, 151 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rehotun 80% vs Stepanchuk 60%
Rehotun
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rehotun 80% vs Stepanchuk 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rehotun -1 · Stepanchuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Stepanchuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rehotun form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRehotun 1.80 / Stepanchuk 1.909
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stepanchuk)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13250701
Rehotun1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite47% won 8 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it83% 5 of 6
Stepanchuk1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 38 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back16% 9 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeRehotun1wins
AwayStepanchuk0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderRehotun leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricRehotunStepanchukR − SBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match47.040.0+7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRehotunStepanchukBasisWin rate · lifetime196 / 399 vs 304 / 62349.1%48.8%196 / 399 vs 304 / 623Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StepanchukRehotun 1.80/Stepanchuk 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stepanchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stepanchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 2 · 03:35D. Rehotun47119115113Y. Stepanchuk4051161172
D. Rehotun10
LOct 6 · 21:35D. Rehotun2.75127111692D. Derevynskyi1.401411914113WSep 30 · 19:25D. Us2.10121111572D. Rehotun1.671013711113WSep 30 · 18:25D. Rehotun2.00111111113M. Fomin1.73135771WSep 30 · 17:25D. Rehotun1.8311117113A. Peretiatko1.83591151WSep 30 · 15:55D. Rehotun2.0011116113P. Ishchyk1.73651151WSep 30 · 13:55D. Rehotun1.44111111113M. Skliar2.63136881WSep 29 · 19:25D. Rehotun3.751191111113V. Kobets1.2513118562LSep 29 · 17:55D. Rehotun1.8311871192P. Ishchyk1.83411118113WSep 29 · 16:25D. Rehotun1.4011411113M. Skliar2.75911291WSep 29 · 14:55D. Rehotun2.20116134113A. Peretiatko1.61811111192
Y. Stepanchuk10
WOct 6 · 22:05Y. Stepanchuk2.63811116113S. Pitsyk1.4411581192WOct 5 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk1.571211113M. Polysynskyi2.2510860LOct 5 · 01:35Y. Stepanchuk1.91108111182D. Kim1.80121174113WOct 5 · 00:05Y. Stepanchuk1.8312711113H. Kulishov1.831011951LOct 4 · 22:35Y. Stepanchuk1.6710812111S. Khandetskyi2.10121110133WOct 4 · 21:05Y. Stepanchuk2.6311611113S. Pitsyk1.44811871LOct 2 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk1.57811661S. Khandetskyi2.2511611113WOct 2 · 01:35M. Polysynskyi1.80611751Y. Stepanchuk1.9111711113WOct 2 · 00:35Y. Stepanchuk1.571291611113M. Fomin2.25141114942WOct 1 · 23:35Y. Sokoltsov2.2011116992Y. Stepanchuk1.61571111113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.