TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Lukas Jindrak vs Jakub Vales 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118911117114––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:53 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Jindrak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Jindrak above · Jakub Vales below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 72 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Lukas Jindrak at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Jindrak 21–14 Jakub Vales Jakub Vales has won 14 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5354.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jindrak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
21-14 in 35
Jindrak
Correct
gap of 7 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jindrak 1921 vs Vales 1849
Jindrak
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jindrak 60% vs Vales 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jindrak 60% vs Vales 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jindrak +1 · Vales +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Jindrak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJindrak 1.80 / Vales 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jindrak)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13248382
Jindrak1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 78 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it93% 38 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it83% 54 of 65
Vales1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 04)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 28 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back20% 9 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJindrak7wins
AwayVales3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJindrak leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJindrak100%5 of 5
AwayVales60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jindrak5Vales5n = 10split evenly
S2Jindrak3Vales7n = 10Vales took 7 of 10
S3Jindrak4Vales6n = 10Vales took 6 of 10
S4Jindrak6Vales2n = 8Jindrak took 6 of 8
S5Jindrak4Vales0n = 4Jindrak took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJindrakValesJ − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.437.9+1.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJindrakValesBasisWin rate · lifetime228 / 410 vs 298 / 54755.6%54.5%228 / 410 vs 298 / 547Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JindrakJindrak 1.80/Vales 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jindrak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jindrak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 06:00L. Jindrak4211911113J. Vales30811741
WSep 29 · 13:30L. Jindrak531181211113J. Vales4031114572
WSep 29 · 11:00L. Jindrak4211911113J. Vales36811891
LSep 29 · 09:28L. Jindrak113350J. Vales331111113
LSep 29 · 08:00L. Jindrak34961181J. Vales4111118113
WSep 22 · 12:30L. Jindrak4211119113J. Vales33781171
WSep 22 · 09:02L. Jindrak48911116113J. Vales4211581172
WSep 22 · 08:00L. Jindrak501171011113J. Vales4361112772
LSep 5 · 16:59L. Jindrak2476110J. Vales351111133
WSep 5 · 14:00L. Jindrak481011511113J. Vales4612911592
L. Jindrak10
WOct 2 · 09:00L. Jindrak1.501111113E. Mares2.504770LOct 2 · 08:30L. Jindrak1.5784111152J. Simecek2.25111145113LOct 2 · 07:00L. Jindrak1.336118121J. Ruzicka3.2511411143WOct 2 · 06:00E. Mares2.20115591L. Jindrak1.6191111113WSep 29 · 13:30L. Jindrak1.801181211113J. Vales1.9031114572WSep 29 · 12:30L. Jindrak1.671111113E. Mares2.106860WSep 29 · 11:00L. Jindrak1.8011911113J. Vales1.91811891WSep 29 · 10:00T. Postelt2.385115121L. Jindrak1.5311811143LSep 29 · 09:28J. Vales1.911111113L. Jindrak1.803350LSep 29 · 08:00J. Vales1.9111118113L. Jindrak1.80961181
J. Vales10
WOct 4 · 21:30Z. Bilek1.901151081J. Vales1.8071112113LOct 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8311811143J. Vales1.839119121WOct 4 · 19:00T. Postelt2.6311611892J. Vales1.44511911113LOct 4 · 18:30J. Vales1.8011117592Z. Bilek1.91831111113WSep 30 · 13:30J. Vales1.831114113E. Mares1.8381290LSep 30 · 12:00T. Postelt2.6314131111113J. Vales1.441211131362LSep 29 · 13:30L. Jindrak1.801181211113J. Vales1.9031114572LSep 29 · 11:00L. Jindrak1.8011911113J. Vales1.91811891WSep 29 · 09:28J. Vales1.911111113L. Jindrak1.803350WSep 29 · 08:00J. Vales1.9111118113L. Jindrak1.80961181
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