TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Denis Hofman vs Jiri Zuzanek 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
4111151311311117
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:22 and never touched: 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeDenis Hofman to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDenis Hofman above · Jiri Zuzanek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 87 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Denis Hofman at 56.1%
87 points played in total.
H2H Denis Hofman 24–28 Jiri Zuzanek Denis Hofman has won 24 of their 52 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Hofman beat Zuzanek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:2256.1%Our read59.9%to break even at 1.67
short by 3.8pp59.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.67 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (55%)
Hofman
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
24-28 in 52
Zuzanek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hofman 1597 vs Zuzanek 1545
Hofman
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hofman 40% vs Zuzanek 60%
Zuzanek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hofman 60% vs Zuzanek 40%
Hofman
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hofman +1 · Zuzanek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Hofman) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zuzanek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHofman 1.67 / Zuzanek 2.07
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Hofman)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13245822
Hofman1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 63 of 117
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it68% 39 of 57
Zuzanek2.07
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 111 of 236
Down 0–1, comes back28% 33 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHofman7wins
AwayZuzanek3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHofman leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHofman100%4 of 4
AwayZuzanek50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hofman4Zuzanek6n = 10Zuzanek took 6 of 10
S2Hofman4Zuzanek6n = 10Zuzanek took 6 of 10
S3Hofman7Zuzanek3n = 10Hofman took 7 of 10
S4Hofman4Zuzanek2n = 6Hofman took 4 of 6
S5Hofman3Zuzanek0n = 3Hofman took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHofmanZuzanekH − ZBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.933.5+3.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHofmanZuzanekBasisWin rate · lifetime455 / 934 vs 544 / 109448.7%49.7%455 / 934 vs 544 / 1094Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HofmanHofman 1.67/Zuzanek 2.07
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.1%
Hofman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hofman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 18:30D. Hofman341112113J. Zuzanek2581070
WAug 19 · 09:30D. Hofman521011911113J. Zuzanek4112611842
WAug 19 · 08:30D. Hofman45391111113J. Zuzanek4111116762
WAug 17 · 23:30D. Hofman4011711113J. Zuzanek28911261
WJul 30 · 16:00D. Hofman361114113J. Zuzanek2781270
LJul 26 · 12:30D. Hofman361061191J. Zuzanek4212118113
WJul 25 · 16:30D. Hofman4111811113J. Zuzanek25411461
LJul 25 · 12:00D. Hofman174850J. Zuzanek331111113
LJul 20 · 11:00D. Hofman23310100J. Zuzanek351112123
WJul 20 · 09:30D. Hofman451011112113J. Zuzanek3812171172
D. Hofman10
WOct 4 · 20:00R. Pacha1.6111681152D. Hofman2.20611115113LOct 4 · 19:00M. Klement2.3881111113D. Hofman1.53116631WOct 4 · 18:30D. Hofman1.611112113J. Zuzanek2.2081070LSep 24 · 21:30S. Kasnik1.651111163D. Hofman2.1046140LSep 24 · 20:30D. Hofman2.50611681S. Kasnik1.5011711113WSep 24 · 19:00D. Hofman1.67127113113M. Pikous2.10101191192WSep 24 · 18:00J. Louda1.80661111112D. Hofman1.91111189133WSep 23 · 21:00M. Bittner1.91611101172D. Hofman1.80118128113LSep 23 · 20:00S. Kasnik1.911111123D. Hofman1.8048100WSep 23 · 19:00M. Bittner2.00811131132D. Hofman1.73117156113
J. Zuzanek10
WOct 4 · 20:30M. Klement1.36531111102J. Zuzanek3.00111199123WOct 4 · 19:30J. Zuzanek2.501111107113R. Pacha1.5069121182LOct 4 · 18:30D. Hofman1.611112113J. Zuzanek2.2081070LOct 4 · 16:59J. Zuzanek1.6711511452T. Janata2.10511911113WOct 4 · 16:00J. Zuzanek2.001311116113M. Vizek1.73111361172WOct 4 · 15:30T. Janata2.00133931J. Zuzanek1.73111111113LOct 4 · 14:00J. Zuzanek1.735960M. Nohejl2.001111113LOct 3 · 16:59M. Sychra1.83911713113J. Zuzanek1.83116111162LOct 3 · 16:00M. Pikous1.3611916113J. Zuzanek3.008111461LOct 3 · 15:00J. Louda1.5371111113J. Zuzanek2.38115631
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