TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Malachowski vs Krzysztof Kapik 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 24Finished
Michal Malachowski
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119911117118––
Krzysztof Kapik
Away
1.90
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:51 and never touched — 58.8% is still 58.8%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
58.8%
58.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
119911117118––
H2H Michal Malachowski 20–24 Krzysztof Kapik Michal Malachowski has won 20 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:51What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Malachowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-24 in 44
Kapik
Wrong
gap of 4 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Malachowski 1648 vs Kapik 1650
Kapik
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Malachowski 40% vs Kapik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Malachowski 30% vs Kapik 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Malachowski +1 · Kapik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Malachowski) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapik form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMalachowski 1.80 / Kapik 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Malachowski)+2.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13186412
Malachowski1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite58% won 107 of 184
Up 2–0, closes it96% 50 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it75% 79 of 106
Kapik1.90
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 176 of 392
Down 0–1, comes back25% 54 of 214
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMalachowski6wins
AwayKapik4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMalachowski leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMalachowski71.4%5 of 7
AwayKapik66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Malachowski7Kapik3n = 10Malachowski took 7 of 10
S2Malachowski3Kapik7n = 10Kapik took 7 of 10
S3Malachowski8Kapik2n = 10Malachowski took 8 of 10
S4Malachowski3Kapik4n = 7Kapik took 4 of 7
S5Malachowski2Kapik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMalachowskiKapikM − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.539.2+2.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMalachowskiKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime406 / 775 vs 1121 / 210552.4%53.3%406 / 775 vs 1121 / 2105Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MalachowskiMalachowski 1.80/Kapik 1.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Malachowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Malachowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 03:40M. Malachowski216870K. Kapik331111113
WSep 14 · 09:20M. Malachowski331111113K. Kapik246990
LAug 26 · 24:10M. Malachowski35991341K. Kapik44111111113
LAug 24 · 21:00M. Malachowski4311911662K. Kapik47611811113
WAug 9 · 21:25M. Malachowski581511811133K. Kapik47174114112
WAug 9 · 18:05M. Malachowski43111011113K. Kapik32512871
WJul 9 · 20:05M. Malachowski361113123K. Kapik27611100
LJul 9 · 24:45M. Malachowski4511711792K. Kapik48711811113
WJul 8 · 22:30M. Malachowski55111118153K. Kapik5191316131
WJul 8 · 20:30M. Malachowski46114119113K. Kapik3941171162
M. Malachowski10
WSep 24 · 10:05M. Malachowski2.651111811113J. Zochniak1.4313611962LSep 24 · 09:00M. Malachowski2.0081191182J. Kwapis1.70115117113WSep 24 · 07:40J. Kwapis2.459118101M. Malachowski1.4711811123LSep 24 · 06:50A. Daniel1.95119111113M. Malachowski1.7551171152LSep 24 · 06:00M. Malachowski1.8761070M. Rutkowski1.831112113WSep 24 · 04:25M. Malachowski1.56101111113K. Wloczko2.28128991LSep 24 · 03:40G. Poliniewicz1.751111113M. Malachowski1.959650LSep 15 · 14:35M. Malachowski1.867950M. Rutkowski1.801111113LSep 15 · 13:00M. Malachowski1.90101430L. Jarocki1.751216113LSep 15 · 11:45M. Malachowski2.4391561192M. Miastowski1.451113117113
K. Kapik10
WSep 24 · 12:35J. Zochniak3.2046110K. Kapik1.331111133LSep 24 · 10:55K. Kapik2.00812100G. Poliniewicz1.701114123LSep 24 · 09:45K. Kapik2.1011101110122M. Rutkowski1.65712312143WSep 24 · 24:35K. Kapik1.5711112113K. Klocek2.25561171WSep 23 · 23:45K. Rudomina3.501011117102K. Kapik1.28128711123LSep 23 · 22:35K. Kapik2.003460K. Staszczyk1.731111113LSep 23 · 21:50D. Solilo1.80118117123K. Kapik1.91611511102LSep 23 · 07:40K. Kapik1.687780J. Kwapis2.051111113WSep 23 · 06:25K. Kapik3.4031211113K. Wloczko1.251110961LSep 23 · 05:15K. Kapik1.701711861D. Prokopcov1.9519511113
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