TT Lossbeater/WTT Feeder Berlin Quals
WTT Feeder Berlin QualsMatch #12459691
Played Aug 20Finished
Zhenlong Liu
Home
1.17
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311911114119––
Bosman Botha
Away
4.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–4Last 5Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:00 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeZhenlong Liu to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZhenlong Liu above · Bosman Botha below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 79 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Zhenlong Liu at 54.1%
79 points played in total.
H2H Zhenlong Liu 1–0 Bosman Botha Bosman Botha has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:00What took a side3 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Liu
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Form (L5)
Liu 60% vs Botha 20%
Liu
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Liu 40% vs Botha 20%
Liu
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Liu +1 · Botha +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Liu) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Liu form (60%) is below what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLiu 1.17 / Botha 4.50
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Liu)-0.0pp
WTT Feeder Berlin Quals · #12459691
Liu1.17
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
Botha4.50
20%won 1 of 5 · last 10
oldest → newest
25%takes the first set · 1 of 4
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeLiu1wins
AwayBotha0wins
Liu leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricLiuBothaL − BBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match44.035.0+9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLiuBothaBasisWin rate · lifetime4 / 10 vs 1 / 440%25%4 / 10 vs 1 / 4Avg sets wonper match2.10.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LiuLiu 1.17/Botha 4.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Liu · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Liu won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 20 · 10:20Z. Liu—13911113B. Botha—1111491
Z. Liu10
LAug 26 · 10:20Y. Yu1.1113116113Z. Liu4.761161161LAug 20 · 15:05A. Rasanen2.5011912113Z. Liu1.506111081WAug 19 · 14:35Z. Liu—11611113F. Cozmolici—811471LApr 20 · 18:00Z. Liu4.7581111782J. Seyfried1.14115911113WApr 20 · 08:00M. Sawczak1.57341481Z. Liu2.25111112113LApr 14 · 10:25Z. Liu—111011772S. Jang—912811113WApr 13 · 16:25Z. Liu—3S. Boccard—0LMar 24 · 15:00A. Pal1.1711811133Z. Liu4.506114111LMar 24 · 09:00A. Puppo1.44111111113Z. Liu2.63791371LMar 22 · 17:59M. Kolodziejczyk—811111193Z. Liu—11456112
B. Botha9
LAug 25 · 09:10M. Froseth—1111113B. Botha—4850LAug 24 · 15:10B. Botha6.50115541A. Olave1.1051111113LAug 24 · 10:20B. Botha7.002520J. Martinko1.081111113LAug 21 · 10:55B. Botha8.505850M. Badowski1.051111113LAug 20 · 15:40B. Botha8.005330K. Sambe1.061111113WAug 19 · 08:35B. Botha—1111123F. Cozmolici—97100LAug 8 · 18:15B. Chan1.04111193B. Botha9.004750LJul 10 · 15:20V. Picard1.011111113B. Botha13.007850LAug 10 · 19:05Y. Kwak1.051111113B. Botha8.503940
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