TT Lossbeater/WTT Europe Smash Sweden
WTT Europe Smash SwedenMatch #12396292
Played Aug 11Finished
Truls Moregard
Home
1.14
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911311811––––
Dimitrij Ovtcharov
Away
5.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTruls Moregard to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTruls Moregard above · Dimitrij Ovtcharov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 53 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Truls Moregard at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:13What took a side2 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Moregard
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Form (L5)
Moregard 60% vs Ovtcharov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moregard 80% vs Ovtcharov 50%
Moregard
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moregard -2 · Ovtcharov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Moregard) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovtcharov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (20%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoregard 1.14 / Ovtcharov 5.00
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Moregard)-0.0pp
WTT Europe Smash Sweden · #12396292
Moregard1.14
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Ovtcharov5.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoregardOvtcharovBasisWin rate · lifetime8 / 10 vs 5 / 1080%50%8 / 10 vs 5 / 10Avg sets wonper match3.11.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoregardMoregard 1.14/Ovtcharov 5.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
81.4%
Moregard · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ovtcharov won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
T. Moregard10
LJul 5 · 21:15T. Moregard1.34118111193V. Sidorenko2.8541153114LJul 5 · 18:15T. Moregard1.30118111193V. Sidorenko3.4041153114WJul 5 · 01:45W. Jang2.2046550T. Moregard1.61111111114WJul 4 · 02:45K. Jha3.75311591T. Moregard1.2511611113WJul 1 · 20:45A. Bertelsmeier4.501211116102T. Moregard1.171013511123WJun 29 · 21:55Q. Aruna4.5012650T. Moregard1.171411113WMay 17 · 14:00T. Moregard1.8311115113A. Lebrun1.83571161WMay 17 · 12:27T. Moregard3.751515123F. Lebrun1.251313100WMay 16 · 11:30T. Moregard1.05113141063P. Gionis8.50811121242WMay 7 · 21:20T. Moregard1.251111123G. Kuo3.7568100
D. Ovtcharov10
LAug 14 · 12:05D. Ovtcharov2.387116101D. Jorgic1.5311811123WAug 13 · 16:35D. Ovtcharov2.381111113J. Oh1.535760LJun 30 · 20:45D. Qiu1.5771114113D. Ovtcharov2.251181291WJun 29 · 20:45J. Seyfried2.38115751D. Ovtcharov1.5391111113LJun 20 · 15:35S. Togami1.651111113D. Ovtcharov2.079370WJun 20 · 10:45D. Ovtcharov1.806101111113Y. Uda1.9111128392WJun 19 · 16:10D. Ovtcharov1.4411811133J. Seyfried2.632119111LJun 11 · 16:45D. Ovtcharov1.536111041J. Lim2.3811812113LMay 2 · 19:27D. Ovtcharov2.50136561A. Lebrun1.50111111113LApr 3 · 03:45D. Jorgic1.5711111110114D. Ovtcharov2.258581291
Upcoming Matches
T. Moregard
D. Ovtcharov
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