TT Lossbeater/WTT Europe Smash Sweden Quals
WTT Europe Smash Sweden QualsMatch #12379605
Played Aug 8Finished
Tiago Apolonia
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
34––––––––
Deni Kozul
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:56 and never touched — 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timeTiago Apolonia to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTiago Apolonia above · Deni Kozul below
Set 1 · 3-4
Point 7 set 1, 3-4 — our read held Tiago Apolonia at 68.8%
7 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:56What took a side1 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Apolonia
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Form (L5)
Apolonia 40% vs Kozul 60%
Kozul
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Apolonia 60% vs Kozul 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Apolonia -1 · Kozul -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Apolonia)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozul form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsApolonia 1.36 / Kozul 3.00
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Apolonia)+0.0pp
WTT Europe Smash Sweden Quals · #12379605
Apolonia1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Kozul3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricApoloniaKozulBasisWin rate · lifetime6 / 10 vs 5 / 1060%50%6 / 10 vs 5 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ApoloniaApolonia 1.36/Kozul 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.8%
Apolonia · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kozul won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
T. Apolonia10
LJun 27 · 02:50T. Apolonia1.481241071C. Andras2.42101112113WJun 26 · 22:15A. Luo8.501470T. Apolonia1.051111113LJun 5 · 06:00T. Apolonia2.631411511102H. Shinozuka1.44169116123WJun 4 · 10:10T. Apolonia1.83581111113M. Thakkar1.8311115892LMay 31 · 16:15I. Ban2.0011911113T. Apolonia1.73711941WMay 31 · 09:45A. Bhattacharjee2.63711111132T. Apolonia1.44119813113WMay 30 · 18:00T. Apolonia1.551111113P. Jain2.158870WMay 30 · 11:20T. Apolonia1.1711119113G. Gomez4.50771181WMay 29 · 10:20T. Apolonia1.1411119113A. Vilardell5.00571121LMay 19 · 10:45Y. Kizukuri1.331111113T. Apolonia3.253750
D. Kozul10
LAug 28 · 16:15D. Kozul2.63114561A. Bhattacharjee1.4491111113WAug 28 · 09:45D. Dorcescu4.00913751D. Kozul1.22111111113WAug 27 · 16:50D. Kozul1.2261111123M. Andersen3.751169101WAug 27 · 16:50D. Kozul1.2061111113M. Buch4.331169101WAug 27 · 10:20D. Kozul1.3611128113Y. Yu3.005101151WAug 26 · 17:25D. Kozul1.351111123R. Heras2.9058100LAug 11 · 12:20D. Kozul4.33931181D. Jorgic1.2011115113WAug 9 · 20:50D. Kozul5.551111113G. Park1.107960WAug 9 · 17:55D. Kozul6.001111103G. Park1.117960WAug 9 · 12:05D. Kozul1.30111011113A. Levenko3.40912891
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