TT Lossbeater/WTT Feeder Ulaanbaatar
WTT Feeder UlaanbaatarMatch #12270347
Played Jul 21Finished
Tamito Watanabe
Home
3.75
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
3–0Last 3Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111185111210116
Yu-An Chang
Away
1.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:15 and never touched — 60.3% is still 60.3%
Graded at full timeTamito Watanabe to win
60.3%
60.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTamito Watanabe above · Yu-An Chang below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 92 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Tamito Watanabe at 60.3%
92 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:15What took a side3 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Chang
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Form (L5)
Watanabe 100% vs Chang 40%
Watanabe
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Watanabe 100% vs Chang 50%
Watanabe
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Watanabe +3 · Chang -1
Watanabe
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Chang) · live re-read · sealed at 40% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chang form (40%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWatanabe 3.75 / Chang 1.25
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Chang)+0.0pp
WTT Feeder Ulaanbaatar · #12270347
Watanabe3.75
100%won 3 of 3 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest67%takes the first set · 2 of 3
Chang1.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricWatanabeChangBasisWin rate · lifetime3 / 3 vs 5 / 10100%50%3 / 3 vs 5 / 10Avg sets wonper match3.02.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChangWatanabe 3.75/Chang 1.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75%
Chang · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Watanabe won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
T. Watanabe9
LAug 26 · 11:30N. Tauler2.20121111113T. Watanabe1.61146861LAug 20 · 08:35T. Watanabe2.105690A. Naumi1.671111113LJul 25 · 13:10T. Watanabe—116813142S. Lee—7111111163WJul 25 · 06:30T. Watanabe—1111113L. Neumann—2140WJul 24 · 13:00T. Watanabe—11117113S. Pande—651151LJul 22 · 05:55Y. Lin1.911011713113T. Watanabe1.80129111182WJul 20 · 09:45D. Han—613951T. Watanabe—111111113WJul 20 · 04:00T. Watanabe—10111110113Z. Yang—12981242WJul 19 · 09:00T. Watanabe—1111113T. Otgonpurev—1690
Y. Chang10
LAug 8 · 15:55Y. Chang3.007911131G. Park1.3611117153LJun 27 · 19:20M. Freitas1.83791112113Y. Chang1.83111191062WJun 26 · 21:55Y. Chang1.06811117113Y. Batix8.0011771132LJun 17 · 15:45Y. Chang2.52119381G. Park1.4791111113LJun 17 · 15:35Y. Chang2.63119381G. Park1.4491111103WJun 16 · 16:00V. Ursu2.251131191Y. Chang1.5771113113WJun 16 · 09:10K. Stumper1.675760Y. Chang2.101111113LJun 10 · 16:20J. Lim1.4491111113Y. Chang2.63118341WJun 10 · 10:55Y. Chang1.70119126113A. Bertelsmeier1.91511101162WJun 9 · 13:35Y. Chang1.081111113L. Stoll7.007490
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