TT Lossbeater/World Cup Qualification
World Cup QualificationMatch #11671931
Played Apr 1Finished
Jingkun Liang
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181166119111012
Dimitrij Ovtcharov
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingJingkun Liang above · Dimitrij Ovtcharov below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 10-11
Point 94 set 5, 10-11
94 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jingkun Liang 1–0 Dimitrij Ovtcharov Dimitrij Ovtcharov has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Liang)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Liang form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLiang 1.44 / Ovtcharov 2.63
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Liang)-10.5pp (anti-value)
World Cup Qualification · #11671931
The market does not separate these two
1.44 against 2.63 — a coin flip with a margin on top.
Below 3pp of separation the engine pins the read to 50 ± 4 and then drops the pick. So no percentage is published here — the price is the datum.
Liang1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Ovtcharov2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeLiang1wins
AwayOvtcharov0wins
Liang leads 1–0.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricLiangOvtcharovL − OBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match48.050.0−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLiangOvtcharovBasisWin rate · lifetime25 / 41 vs 36 / 6261%58.1%25 / 41 vs 36 / 62Avg sets wonper match2.62.3per matchAvg pointsper match44.537.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LiangLiang 1.44/Ovtcharov 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Liang · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ovtcharov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
W—J. Liang—3D. Ovtcharov—2
J. Liang10
WMay 10 · 15:00T. Harimoto1.36111191182J. Liang3.00841113113WMay 9 · 19:50J. Liang1.73311512113A. Lebrun2.001111131022WMay 8 · 12:50J. Liang1.351111153J. An2.9475130LMay 6 · 09:00E. Ionescu4.501111113J. Liang1.175760WMay 5 · 08:56N. Lum8.009560J. Liang1.061111113LMay 3 · 12:10J. Liang1.50711911102T. Moregard2.50119113123LMay 2 · 18:56J. Liang1.30114991J. Oh3.4061111113WMay 2 · 12:27C. Green8.5071181192J. Liang1.05115118113LMar 31 · 05:40J. Liang1.0611781182H. Cifuentes8.00511114113LMar 13 · 05:55J. Liang1.5711114982D. Qiu2.25761111113
D. Ovtcharov10
LAug 14 · 12:05D. Ovtcharov2.387116101D. Jorgic1.5311811123WAug 13 · 16:35D. Ovtcharov2.381111113J. Oh1.535760WAug 11 · 17:10T. Moregard1.149380D. Ovtcharov5.001111113LJun 30 · 20:45D. Qiu1.5771114113D. Ovtcharov2.251181291WJun 29 · 20:45J. Seyfried2.38115751D. Ovtcharov1.5391111113LJun 20 · 15:35S. Togami1.651111113D. Ovtcharov2.079370WJun 20 · 10:45D. Ovtcharov1.806101111113Y. Uda1.9111128392WJun 19 · 16:10D. Ovtcharov1.4411811133J. Seyfried2.632119111LJun 11 · 16:45D. Ovtcharov1.536111041J. Lim2.3811812113LMay 2 · 19:27D. Ovtcharov2.50136561A. Lebrun1.50111111113
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