Oleksii Mitla vs Orest Hura 3-2

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Oleksii Mitla

Home

2.00

At publish

Lost last 4

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 4

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

1181166111012116

Orest Hura

Away

1.73

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:05 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%

Graded at full time

Orest Hura to win

54.1%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingOleksii Mitla above · Orest Hura below

Set 1 · 11-8

Set 2 · 11-6

Set 3 · 6-11

Set 4 · 10-12

Set 5 · 11-6

Point 92 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Orest Hura at 54.1%

92 points played in total.

H2H Oleksii Mitla 27–37 Orest Hura Oleksii Mitla has won 27 of their 64 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Hura

Mitla 2.00/Hura 1.73

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54.1%

Hura · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Mitla won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 22:05

54.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727

short by 3.8pp

57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Hura

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

27-37 in 64

Hura

Wrong

gap of 10 in 64, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Mitla 1533 vs Hura 1568

Hura

Wrong

both rated, 35 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Mitla 20% vs Hura 40%

Hura

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Mitla 50% vs Hura 30%

Mitla

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Mitla -4 · Hura +1

Mitla

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Hura) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Hura: form 40%, the price implies 58%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMitla 2.00 / Hura 1.727

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Hura)-3.8pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeMitla4wins

AwayHura6wins

5 of 10 to a deciderHura leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeMitla40%2 of 5

AwayHura60%3 of 5

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Mitla5Hura5n = 10split evenly

S2Mitla4Hura6n = 10Hura took 6 of 10

S3Mitla3Hura7n = 10Hura took 7 of 10

S4Mitla4Hura5n = 9Hura took 5 of 9

S5Mitla3Hura2n = 5Mitla took 3 of 5

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home330%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away330%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricMitlaHuraM − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.745.0−3.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMitlaHuraBasisWin rate · lifetime372 / 853 vs 416 / 80343.6%51.8%372 / 853 vs 416 / 803Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.9per match

Setka Cup · #13281107

Mitla2.00

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 4

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog40% won 130 of 322

Down 0–1, comes back24% 48 of 197

Down 0–2, comes back10% 12 of 116

Hura1.73

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite52% won 101 of 193

Up 2–0, closes it98% 49 of 50

Up 1–0, closes it72% 70 of 97

Oleksii Mitla vs Orest Hura 3-2 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Oleksii Mitla vs Orest Hura 3-2 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.