TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jaroslav Sindler vs Peter Chvojka 3-1 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 22 - Czech 11 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210117411115––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:36 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Sindler to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Sindler above · Peter Chvojka below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 71 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Jaroslav Sindler at 54.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Sindler 7–4 Peter Chvojka Peter Chvojka has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:3654.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sindler
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Sindler
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sindler 1429 vs Chvojka 1371
Sindler
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sindler 40% vs Chvojka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sindler 60% vs Chvojka 40%
Sindler
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sindler -2 · Chvojka -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Sindler) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sindler form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSindler 1.727 / Chvojka 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Sindler)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13277188
Sindler1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 150 of 275
Up 2–0, closes it86% 50 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it68% 93 of 136
Chvojka2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 43 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back18% 9 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSindler6wins
AwayChvojka4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSindler leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSindler100%4 of 4
AwayChvojka66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sindler4Chvojka6n = 10Chvojka took 6 of 10
S2Sindler5Chvojka5n = 10split evenly
S3Sindler3Chvojka7n = 10Chvojka took 7 of 10
S4Sindler7Chvojka1n = 8Sindler took 7 of 8
S5Sindler2Chvojka1n = 3Sindler took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSindlerChvojkaS − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.438.6+0.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSindlerChvojkaBasisWin rate · lifetime450 / 865 vs 159 / 34652%46%450 / 865 vs 159 / 346Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SindlerSindler 1.73/Chvojka 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Sindler · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sindler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 11 · 07:40J. Sindler3812114113P. Chvojka331071151
LOct 2 · 12:38J. Sindler239770P. Chvojka331111113
WOct 2 · 11:40J. Sindler51961411113P. Chvojka42111112262
WSep 27 · 06:45J. Sindler4181111113P. Chvojka30116491
LSep 26 · 08:45J. Sindler4491161172P. Chvojka50118119113
LSep 26 · 06:40J. Sindler33511891P. Chvojka4011711113
WSep 14 · 11:10J. Sindler53148911113P. Chvojka51121111892
LAug 24 · 08:15J. Sindler2358100P. Chvojka341111123
WAug 10 · 11:15J. Sindler4214611113P. Chvojka391211971
WAug 6 · 06:15J. Sindler46141110113P. Chvojka341221281
J. Sindler10
LOct 11 · 08:39J. Sindler1.61114791P. Chvojka2.2091111113LOct 11 · 06:40J. Sindler1.574750P. Jokiel2.251111113LOct 11 · 05:40J. Sindler1.57971131F. Mandrysz2.2511113113WOct 9 · 13:09O. Skvor1.673157121J. Sindler2.10111311143LOct 9 · 11:45O. Skvor1.61111144113J. Sindler2.2098111152WOct 9 · 11:15P. Sturma2.101181211102J. Sindler1.67911147123WOct 9 · 10:15J. Sindler1.91101111113D. Stefek1.80129681LOct 9 · 09:10J. Sindler1.73111256122O. Vaclahovsky2.004101111143WOct 9 · 08:10P. Jokiel2.1031280J. Sindler1.671114113WOct 9 · 07:10J. Sindler1.83118811113O. Vaclahovsky1.8351111942
P. Chvojka10
WOct 11 · 08:39J. Sindler1.61114791P. Chvojka2.2091111113LOct 11 · 07:10F. Mandrysz1.8311411113P. Chvojka1.83811891LOct 11 · 06:10P. Chvojka2.251310871P. Jokiel1.57111211113WOct 7 · 21:08P. Chvojka1.67101111113T. Ogrocki2.10128741LOct 7 · 20:10J. Vanous1.8041111123P. Chvojka1.911178101WOct 7 · 19:10P. Chvojka1.731111123T. Ogrocki2.0088100WOct 7 · 17:40K. Przeczek1.6151020P. Chvojka2.201112113WOct 2 · 12:38J. Sindler1.539770P. Chvojka2.381111113LOct 2 · 11:40P. Chvojka2.10111112262J. Sindler1.67961411113LOct 2 · 10:40P. Chvojka1.73107100P. Jokiel2.001211123
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