TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Krutak vs Oskar Jedrzejowski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesBLW · Blachownia
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411116115811711
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:07 and never touched: 68.3% is still 68.3%
Graded at full timeOskar Jedrzejowski to win
68.3%
68.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
85 points played in total.
Set by set
411116115811711
H2H Michal Krutak 4–11 Oskar Jedrzejowski Michal Krutak has won 4 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Jedrzejowski beat Krutak 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:0768.3%Our read62.5%to break even at 1.60
clears by 5.8pp62.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.60 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Jedrzejowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-11 in 15
Jedrzejowski
Correct
gap of 7 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krutak 1437 vs Jedrzejowski 1466
Jedrzejowski
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krutak 20% vs Jedrzejowski 60%
Jedrzejowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krutak 30% vs Jedrzejowski 70%
Jedrzejowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krutak -4 · Jedrzejowski +1
Krutak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Jedrzejowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krutak form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrutak 2.20 / Jedrzejowski 1.60
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Jedrzejowski)+5.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13271608
Krutak2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 37 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back27% 15 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 33
Jedrzejowski1.60
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 77 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it98% 40 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it78% 57 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrutak3wins
AwayJedrzejowski7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJedrzejowski leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrutak33.3%1 of 3
AwayJedrzejowski71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krutak3Jedrzejowski7n = 10Jedrzejowski took 7 of 10
S2Krutak4Jedrzejowski6n = 10Jedrzejowski took 6 of 10
S3Krutak3Jedrzejowski7n = 10Jedrzejowski took 7 of 10
S4Krutak5Jedrzejowski3n = 8Krutak took 5 of 8
S5Krutak1Jedrzejowski2n = 3Jedrzejowski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrutakJedrzejowskiK − JBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.239.5−5.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrutakJedrzejowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 361 vs 136 / 24459.6%55.7%215 / 361 vs 136 / 244Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JedrzejowskiKrutak 2.20/Jedrzejowski 1.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.3%
Jedrzejowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jedrzejowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 9 · 16:50M. Krutak48111091172O. Jedrzejowski44512115113
LSep 18 · 21:35M. Krutak153660O. Jedrzejowski331111113
WSep 18 · 15:35M. Krutak4011117113O. Jedrzejowski36971191
LAug 29 · 02:00M. Krutak169430O. Jedrzejowski331111113
WAug 28 · 16:25M. Krutak47711711113O. Jedrzejowski4111411872
LAug 22 · 02:45M. Krutak33971161O. Jedrzejowski4011117113
LAug 21 · 18:25M. Krutak45115811102O. Jedrzejowski48511119123
LAug 14 · 21:10M. Krutak25412631O. Jedrzejowski43111011113
WAug 14 · 16:50M. Krutak43101111113O. Jedrzejowski35125991
LJul 31 · 21:35M. Krutak30571171O. Jedrzejowski4211119113
M. Krutak10
LOct 9 · 20:00J. Oracz1.711111113M. Krutak2.007680LOct 9 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.5711117133M. Krutak2.206711111LOct 9 · 18:25M. Krutak1.3711891172K. Malcher2.80711116113LOct 9 · 16:50M. Krutak1.65111091172O. Jedrzejowski2.12512115113WOct 9 · 16:00J. Skorupa2.1011118972M. Krutak1.65771111113WSep 26 · 02:45M. Krutak1.4411511113M. Wolny2.60811781LSep 26 · 01:10M. Krutak2.15611291C. Pawlik1.6111911113WSep 26 · 00:00M. Krutak1.905101111113M. Natkaniec1.7511125772LSep 25 · 22:25M. Krutak1.8512771192M. Wozniczka1.851011114113LSep 25 · 21:10M. Krutak2.05511471M. Warzecha1.6811811113
O. Jedrzejowski10
WOct 9 · 20:20J. Skorupa2.2511391192O. Jedrzejowski1.57911119113LOct 9 · 19:35K. Malcher3.0511611123O. Jedrzejowski1.324117101WOct 9 · 17:35J. Oracz1.50119140O. Jedrzejowski2.451311163WOct 9 · 16:50M. Krutak1.65111091172O. Jedrzejowski2.12512115113LOct 9 · 15:10C. Pawlik2.3311148113O. Jedrzejowski1.549121151WSep 19 · 02:45D. Pyrek2.6041020O. Jedrzejowski1.411112113LSep 19 · 01:35O. Jedrzejowski2.35811761J. Oracz1.5011711113WSep 19 · 00:25C. Pawlik1.83711841O. Jedrzejowski1.8711911113WSep 18 · 23:10M. Natkaniec2.85861181O. Jedrzejowski1.3611119113WSep 18 · 21:35M. Krutak1.953660O. Jedrzejowski1.761111113
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