TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Aristarkhov vs Dmitro Kuzmenko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117116115––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:56 and never touched: 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeSerhii Aristarkhov to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Aristarkhov above · Dmitro Kuzmenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 51 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Serhii Aristarkhov at 75.3%
51 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Aristarkhov 18–7 Dmitro Kuzmenko Dmitro Kuzmenko has won 7 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5675.3%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
clears by 0.3pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Aristarkhov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
18-7 in 25
Aristarkhov
Correct
gap of 11 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Aristarkhov 1642 vs Kuzmenko 1431
Aristarkhov
Correct
both rated, 211 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Aristarkhov 60% vs Kuzmenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Aristarkhov 70% vs Kuzmenko 40%
Aristarkhov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Aristarkhov +1 · Kuzmenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Aristarkhov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAristarkhov 1.333 / Kuzmenko 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Aristarkhov)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13270359
Aristarkhov1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Oct 04)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 95 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it96% 46 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it84% 69 of 82
Kuzmenko3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 08)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 112 of 313
Down 0–1, comes back17% 31 of 178
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAristarkhov7wins
AwayKuzmenko3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderAristarkhov leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAristarkhov75%6 of 8
AwayKuzmenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aristarkhov8Kuzmenko2n = 10Aristarkhov took 8 of 10
S2Aristarkhov4Kuzmenko6n = 10Kuzmenko took 6 of 10
S3Aristarkhov6Kuzmenko4n = 10Aristarkhov took 6 of 10
S4Aristarkhov5Kuzmenko3n = 8Aristarkhov took 5 of 8
S5Aristarkhov2Kuzmenko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAristarkhovKuzmenkoA − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.938.1+4.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAristarkhovKuzmenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime301 / 550 vs 403 / 95954.7%42%301 / 550 vs 403 / 959Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AristarkhovAristarkhov 1.33/Kuzmenko 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Aristarkhov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Aristarkhov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 4 · 13:00S. Aristarkhov551113119113D. Kuzmenko4671571162
WSep 27 · 08:30S. Aristarkhov3911116113D. Kuzmenko35871191
LSep 20 · 08:00S. Aristarkhov4311671182D. Kuzmenko45711115113
LAug 22 · 16:00S. Aristarkhov351111761D. Kuzmenko3813311113
WAug 16 · 16:00S. Aristarkhov43111011113D. Kuzmenko35912681
WAug 6 · 11:30S. Aristarkhov331111113D. Kuzmenko149140
WAug 3 · 07:30S. Aristarkhov3912511113D. Kuzmenko351011681
WJul 25 · 12:00S. Aristarkhov51119911113D. Kuzmenko4891111892
LJul 20 · 08:00S. Aristarkhov48119117102D. Kuzmenko47611711123
S. Aristarkhov10
WOct 10 · 15:00S. Aristarkhov1.61111111113O. Syksa2.20137441WOct 10 · 13:30S. Aristarkhov1.141111113O. Lyman5.007270WOct 4 · 17:03O. Syksa1.9111451262S. Aristarkhov1.807111110113LOct 4 · 16:30S. Aristarkhov1.50312641A. Vasylets2.5011101153LOct 4 · 15:30S. Aristarkhov1.9112119111M. Hubenko1.8014911133WOct 4 · 14:00S. Aristarkhov1.80811911113O. Syksa1.9111811932WOct 4 · 13:00S. Aristarkhov1.401113119113D. Kuzmenko2.7571571162WSep 27 · 10:30A. Lushchyk1.4484111172S. Aristarkhov2.63111136113LSep 27 · 09:30S. Aristarkhov1.839990M. Hubenko1.831111113WSep 27 · 08:30S. Aristarkhov1.3611116113D. Kuzmenko3.00871191
D. Kuzmenko10
WOct 10 · 14:30O. Lyman2.631371271D. Kuzmenko1.44151110113LOct 10 · 13:00A. Vasylets1.331111113D. Kuzmenko3.254880LOct 8 · 11:30D. Kuzmenko3.001175101M. Hubenko1.3691111123WOct 8 · 09:30S. Miroshnychenko2.759811111D. Kuzmenko1.4011119133LOct 8 · 07:30O. Ziakun2.101111113D. Kuzmenko1.679980WOct 8 · 06:30D. Kuzmenko2.1081111113O. Syksa1.67117591WOct 8 · 05:30O. Lyman2.50121280D. Kuzmenko1.501414113LOct 7 · 10:30D. Kuzmenko3.0089111152M. Hubenko1.36111166113LOct 4 · 13:00S. Aristarkhov1.401113119113D. Kuzmenko2.7571571162LSep 27 · 08:30S. Aristarkhov1.3611116113D. Kuzmenko3.00871191
Upcoming Matches
S. Aristarkhov
D. Kuzmenko
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.