TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Trela vs Michal Skorski 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181171210––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:57 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Trela to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
59 points played in total.
Set by set
1181171210––––
H2H Mateusz Trela 53–52 Michal Skorski Michal Skorski has won 52 of their 105 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 9h before this match
Skorski beat Trela 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:5754.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Trela
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
53-52 in 105
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trela 1299 vs Skorski 1316
Skorski
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trela 60% vs Skorski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trela 60% vs Skorski 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Trela +3 · Skorski -1
Trela
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Trela) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrela 1.80 / Skorski 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Trela)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13266946
Trela1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 140 of 246
Up 2–0, closes it94% 61 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it76% 97 of 128
Skorski1.90
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 80 of 199
Down 0–1, comes back20% 23 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTrela6wins
AwaySkorski4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTrela leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrela83.3%5 of 6
AwaySkorski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trela6Skorski4n = 10Trela took 6 of 10
S2Trela4Skorski6n = 10Skorski took 6 of 10
S3Trela3Skorski7n = 10Skorski took 7 of 10
S4Trela5Skorski3n = 8Trela took 5 of 8
S5Trela3Skorski1n = 4Trela took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTrelaSkorskiT − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.841.8−1.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrelaSkorskiBasisWin rate · lifetime813 / 1662 vs 738 / 152548.9%48.4%813 / 1662 vs 738 / 1525Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TrelaTrela 1.80/Skorski 1.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Trela · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Trela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 3 · 16:35M. Trela239860M. Skorski331111113
WSep 28 · 21:30M. Trela46811511113M. Skorski4411811682
WSep 28 · 16:15M. Trela3911116113M. Skorski34871181
WSep 16 · 23:20M. Trela4211119113M. Skorski33861181
LSep 16 · 20:30M. Trela44115115122M. Skorski49511811143
WAug 7 · 21:05M. Trela561113714113M. Skorski56915111292
WJul 31 · 21:05M. Trela4711815133M. Skorski4491113111
WJul 31 · 19:20M. Trela47118116113M. Skorski4491181152
LJul 25 · 01:00M. Trela31111280M. Skorski381314113
LJul 24 · 22:35M. Trela334111081M. Skorski4311912113
M. Trela10
WOct 8 · 23:20M. Trela1.671113113J. Rolak1.9591160WOct 8 · 21:55M. Trela1.6411113123P. Krukar1.999911101WOct 8 · 21:30M. Trela1.90513119113D. Poloszczanski1.80111171182LOct 8 · 20:30M. Trela1.7510911151J. Rolak1.9812118173LOct 8 · 18:55M. Trela1.65118561P. Krukar2.1051111113WOct 8 · 17:45M. Trela1.78117119113D. Poloszczanski1.9371171122WOct 8 · 16:15M. Trela1.611111113M. Kowalczyk2.205590LOct 8 · 15:00M. Trela1.95116115112M. Skorski1.76911911133WOct 7 · 23:20B. Mrugala2.54816100M. Trela1.461118123LOct 7 · 22:35A. Myszewski1.801112113M. Trela1.9071070
M. Skorski10
LOct 8 · 23:45M. Skorski1.86961191P. Krukar1.8011114113WOct 8 · 22:55M. Skorski1.8011119123D. Poloszczanski1.869611101WOct 8 · 21:05M. Skorski1.5211157113J. Rolak2.309131181WOct 8 · 20:05D. Poloszczanski1.801191141M. Skorski1.8513119113LOct 8 · 19:20J. Rolak2.20111169113M. Skorski1.6047111192WOct 8 · 17:20M. Kowalczyk2.10118781M. Skorski1.6371111113WOct 8 · 16:35P. Krukar1.80711961M. Skorski1.8511711113WOct 8 · 15:00M. Trela1.95116115112M. Skorski1.76911911133LOct 7 · 00:10M. Skorski1.7361171182K. Golaszewski1.98119115113WOct 6 · 23:20M. Skorski1.571111113J. Rolak2.257870
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