TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Oliver Vincenec vs Marek Tkocz 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012711118711––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:47 and never touched: 78.8% is still 78.8%
Graded at full timeMarek Tkocz to win
78.8%
78.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
1012711118711––
H2H Oliver Vincenec 8–30 Marek Tkocz Oliver Vincenec has won 8 of their 38 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:4778.8%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 1.2pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (74%)
Tkocz
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-30 in 38
Tkocz
Correct
gap of 22 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vincenec 1336 vs Tkocz 1472
Tkocz
Correct
both rated, 136 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vincenec 80% vs Tkocz 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vincenec 50% vs Tkocz 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vincenec +3 · Tkocz +1
Vincenec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Tkocz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vincenec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVincenec 3.50 / Tkocz 1.25
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Tkocz)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13266906
Vincenec3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 192 of 472
Down 0–1, comes back24% 67 of 280
Down 0–2, comes back8% 11 of 140
Tkocz1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 287 of 422
Up 2–0, closes it95% 162 of 170
Up 1–0, closes it86% 241 of 279
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVincenec5wins
AwayTkocz5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVincenec57.1%4 of 7
AwayTkocz66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vincenec7Tkocz3n = 10Vincenec took 7 of 10
S2Vincenec4Tkocz6n = 10Tkocz took 6 of 10
S3Vincenec6Tkocz4n = 10Vincenec took 6 of 10
S4Vincenec3Tkocz6n = 9Tkocz took 6 of 9
S5Vincenec3Tkocz3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVincenecTkoczV − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.743.3−2.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVincenecTkoczBasisWin rate · lifetime722 / 1576 vs 774 / 117045.8%66.2%722 / 1576 vs 774 / 1170Avg sets wonper match1.92.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczVincenec 3.50/Tkocz 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.8%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tkocz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 9 · 00:00O. Vincenec351071171M. Tkocz4212118113
WJul 29 · 04:50O. Vincenec331111113M. Tkocz248970
WJul 28 · 21:10O. Vincenec39311112123M. Tkocz46116811102
WJul 22 · 06:25O. Vincenec4111811113M. Tkocz34711791
LJul 22 · 02:45O. Vincenec3771151132M. Tkocz50119118113
LJul 8 · 04:00O. Vincenec421388131M. Tkocz48111111153
WJul 8 · 00:00O. Vincenec541191011133M. Tkocz50811128112
LJun 5 · 01:35O. Vincenec3911111792M. Tkocz47611811113
WJun 4 · 18:45O. Vincenec47111186113M. Tkocz4568111192
LMay 27 · 00:00O. Vincenec4011711562M. Tkocz47811611113
O. Vincenec10
LOct 9 · 01:10O. Vincenec2.4591070K. Adamus1.471112113WOct 8 · 22:25O. Vincenec1.8011611113G. Jurowicz1.90911781WOct 8 · 21:10O. Vincenec1.52111110113R. Komandzik2.30781281WOct 7 · 14:40O. Vincenec1.61431311113P. Slosarczyk2.20111111882LOct 7 · 13:05O. Vincenec1.7381191142P. Przewlocki2.00117118113WOct 7 · 11:50O. Vincenec1.7311125113L. Oracz2.006101171WOct 7 · 10:10O. Vincenec2.20141110123K. Slawinski1.6112812101LOct 7 · 09:00O. Vincenec2.6311114101J. Pruszkowski1.4413911123LOct 7 · 07:45K. Slawinski1.5312911113O. Vincenec2.381011851LOct 7 · 06:55P. Przewlocki1.911110116133O. Vincenec1.80712911112
M. Tkocz10
WOct 8 · 23:10M. Tkocz1.4611812113P. Kurek2.355111071LOct 8 · 22:00M. Tkocz1.677980K. Adamus1.951111113WOct 8 · 20:20M. Tkocz1.141111113R. Komandzik5.007720WOct 8 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.78118981M. Tkocz1.9191111113WOct 8 · 18:00K. Adamus1.91871171M. Tkocz1.8011115113WOct 8 · 17:10M. Tkocz1.461111113W. Pytlas2.554130LOct 8 · 16:00M. Tkocz1.8491191152G. Jurowicz1.87118115113LOct 7 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.809360G. Jurowicz1.911111113LOct 7 · 00:45M. Tkocz1.405660M. Adamus2.651111113WOct 6 · 23:35M. Tkocz1.181111113J. Nowak4.156940
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