TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jaroslaw Rolak vs Dawid Poloszczanski 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611811511––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:14 and never touched: 58.4% is still 58.4%
Graded at full timeDawid Poloszczanski to win
58.4%
58.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
52 points played in total.
Set by set
611811511––––
H2H Jaroslaw Rolak 4–8 Dawid Poloszczanski Jaroslaw Rolak has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Rolak beat Poloszczanski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:1458.4%Our read62.5%to break even at 1.60
short by 4.1pp62.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.60 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (57%)
Poloszczanski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-8 in 12
Poloszczanski
Correct
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rolak 1239 vs Poloszczanski 1203
Rolak
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rolak 60% vs Poloszczanski 20%
Rolak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rolak 50% vs Poloszczanski 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rolak -1 · Poloszczanski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Poloszczanski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poloszczanski form (20%) is below what odds imply (63%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRolak 2.10 / Poloszczanski 1.60
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Poloszczanski)-4.1pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13266628
Rolak2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 174 of 473
Down 0–1, comes back17% 45 of 267
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 122
Poloszczanski1.60
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 62 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it100% 27 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it82% 44 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRolak4wins
AwayPoloszczanski6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderPoloszczanski leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRolak60%3 of 5
AwayPoloszczanski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rolak5Poloszczanski5n = 10split evenly
S2Rolak5Poloszczanski5n = 10split evenly
S3Rolak7Poloszczanski3n = 10Rolak took 7 of 10
S4Rolak4Poloszczanski4n = 8split evenly
S5Rolak1Poloszczanski5n = 6Poloszczanski took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRolakPoloszczanskiR − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.842.3+0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRolakPoloszczanskiBasisWin rate · lifetime635 / 1429 vs 358 / 88544.4%40.5%635 / 1429 vs 358 / 885Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PoloszczanskiRolak 2.10/Poloszczanski 1.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.4%
Poloszczanski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Poloszczanski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 16:55J. Rolak3811412113D. Poloszczanski337111051
WOct 3 · 04:55J. Rolak48811135113D. Poloszczanski49118111182
LSep 20 · 06:05J. Rolak495131110102D. Poloszczanski531111712123
WSep 19 · 12:40J. Rolak4611911153D. Poloszczanski374119131
LSep 12 · 03:25J. Rolak47111178102D. Poloszczanski47581111123
LAug 15 · 12:40J. Rolak47811121062D. Poloszczanski531191012113
LAug 1 · 10:10J. Rolak47111151192D. Poloszczanski47413118113
LAug 1 · 04:55J. Rolak47781111102D. Poloszczanski51111189123
WJul 11 · 11:25J. Rolak331111113D. Poloszczanski206950
LJun 20 · 04:10J. Rolak269980D. Poloszczanski331111113
J. Rolak10
LOct 8 · 21:05M. Skorski1.5211157113J. Rolak2.309131181WOct 8 · 20:30M. Trela1.7510911151J. Rolak1.9812118173WOct 8 · 19:20J. Rolak2.20111169113M. Skorski1.6047111192LOct 8 · 18:10P. Krukar1.801111113J. Rolak1.859780WOct 8 · 16:55D. Poloszczanski1.767111051J. Rolak1.9611412113LOct 8 · 15:25M. Kowalczyk2.351111123J. Rolak1.5285100LOct 6 · 23:20M. Skorski1.571111113J. Rolak2.257870WOct 6 · 22:35B. Mrugala1.7210960J. Rolak2.001211113WOct 6 · 22:15J. Rolak2.461111113A. Myszewski1.439680LOct 6 · 21:05K. Golaszewski1.7211811113J. Rolak2.00911681
D. Poloszczanski10
LOct 8 · 22:55M. Skorski1.8011119123D. Poloszczanski1.869611101LOct 8 · 21:30M. Trela1.90513119113D. Poloszczanski1.80111171182LOct 8 · 20:05D. Poloszczanski1.801191141M. Skorski1.8513119113WOct 8 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk1.85121170D. Poloszczanski1.851413113LOct 8 · 17:45M. Trela1.78117119113D. Poloszczanski1.9371171122LOct 8 · 16:55D. Poloszczanski1.767111051J. Rolak1.9611412113LOct 8 · 15:50D. Poloszczanski1.8071110101P. Krukar1.8611812123LOct 4 · 00:35R. Stapor1.341111113D. Poloszczanski3.004940WOct 3 · 22:55M. Trela1.91111081162D. Poloszczanski1.80612115113WOct 3 · 22:15A. Mugowski1.92611991D. Poloszczanski1.7911911113
Upcoming Matches
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