TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Zmijewski vs Arkadiusz Skupinski 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
113811711119111
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:49 and never touched: 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeArtur Zmijewski to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Zmijewski above · Arkadiusz Skupinski below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-1
Point 83 set 5, 11-1 · our read held Artur Zmijewski at 79.4%
83 points played in total.
H2H Artur Zmijewski 3–0 Arkadiusz Skupinski Arkadiusz Skupinski has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:4979.4%Our read81.8%to break even at 1.222
short by 2.4pp81.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.222 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Zmijewski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Zmijewski
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmijewski 1436 vs Skupinski 1226
Zmijewski
Correct
both rated, 210 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmijewski 80% vs Skupinski 20%
Zmijewski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmijewski 60% vs Skupinski 20%
Zmijewski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmijewski -1 · Skupinski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Zmijewski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmijewski 1.222 / Skupinski 4.00
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Zmijewski)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13264214
Zmijewski1.22
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 84 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it100% 52 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it87% 65 of 75
Skupinski4.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 40 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back15% 12 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeZmijewski3wins
AwaySkupinski0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderZmijewski leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmijewski1Skupinski2n = 3Skupinski took 2 of 3
S2Zmijewski2Skupinski1n = 3Zmijewski took 2 of 3
S3Zmijewski2Skupinski1n = 3Zmijewski took 2 of 3
S4Zmijewski3Skupinski0n = 3Zmijewski took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricZmijewskiSkupinskiZ − SBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match45.334.0+11.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmijewskiSkupinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 191 vs 156 / 40858.1%38.2%111 / 191 vs 156 / 408Avg sets wonper match2.21.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZmijewskiZmijewski 1.22/Skupinski 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Zmijewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zmijewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 9 · 16:35A. Zmijewski50981111113A. Skupinski4211114882
WSep 2 · 18:10A. Zmijewski4211119113A. Skupinski27391141
WAug 19 · 18:10A. Zmijewski44101112113A. Skupinski331221091
A. Zmijewski10
LOct 8 · 15:00A. Zmijewski1.6779111382Z. Nocun2.101111511113WOct 6 · 02:00J. Cyndera2.372480A. Zmijewski1.511111113WOct 6 · 01:10M. Machelski3.257111151A. Zmijewski1.3011133113WOct 6 · 00:25A. Zmijewski1.331111113A. Staniczek3.105650WOct 5 · 22:50A. Zmijewski1.3411911113A. Kubiak3.00411651LOct 5 · 22:00J. Michalik1.701111113A. Zmijewski2.007980LOct 5 · 20:45A. Zmijewski1.4011991192A. Staniczek2.76411113113WOct 5 · 19:10A. Zmijewski1.161111113D. Maszczynski4.809360WOct 5 · 18:00A. Zmijewski1.91861111113P. Gesiarz1.8011116822LOct 5 · 16:25A. Zmijewski1.501411881J. Cyndera2.4516511113
A. Skupinski10
LOct 8 · 15:25A. Skupinski4.0071080H. Tkaczyk1.221112113LOct 7 · 22:20P. Gesiarz1.541111113A. Skupinski2.257950WOct 7 · 21:30M. Warzecha1.496480A. Skupinski2.471111113LOct 7 · 20:45A. Skupinski1.753860A. Staniczek1.951111113LOct 7 · 19:10A. Skupinski3.15111171272A. Fomin1.30681114113LOct 7 · 18:20D. Bartosik—111110113A. Skupinski—771241LOct 2 · 01:45A. Skupinski2.6381060A. Fomin1.441112113LOct 2 · 00:35A. Skupinski2.75117831A. Krezel1.4081111113LOct 1 · 23:20A. Skupinski2.2563111152Z. Nocun1.57111189113WOct 1 · 22:10M. Leczycki1.20101180A. Skupinski4.331213113
Upcoming Matches
A. Zmijewski
Oct 8 · 17:45A. Zmijewski1.61A. Kubiak2.20—Oct 8 · 18:55A. Zmijewski1.53P. Gesiarz2.38—Oct 8 · 20:30A. Zmijewski2.63H. Tkaczyk1.44—Oct 8 · 21:45A. Zmijewski1.73A. Kubiak2.00—Oct 8 · 22:35A. Zmijewski1.67Z. Nocun2.10—Oct 9 · 00:10A. Zmijewski2.63H. Tkaczyk1.44—Oct 9 · 01:00A. Zmijewski2.25M. Guzik1.57—Oct 9 · 01:45A. Zmijewski1.25A. Skupinski3.75—
A. Skupinski
Oct 8 · 17:20A. Skupinski2.63Z. Nocun1.44—Oct 8 · 18:30A. Skupinski3.00A. Kubiak1.36—Oct 8 · 19:40A. Skupinski3.00P. Gesiarz1.36—Oct 8 · 21:20A. Skupinski4.33H. Tkaczyk1.20—Oct 8 · 22:10A. Skupinski4.50M. Guzik1.17—Oct 8 · 23:20A. Skupinski—Z. Nocun——Oct 9 · 00:35A. Skupinski3.00A. Kubiak1.36—Oct 9 · 01:45A. Skupinski3.75A. Zmijewski1.25—
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