TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Gembala vs Dalibor Velky Jr 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1131181715––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:43 and never touched: 68.3% is still 68.3%
Graded at full timeJan Gembala to win
68.3%
68.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Gembala above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 17-15
Point 65 set 3, 17-15 · our read held Jan Gembala at 68.3%
65 points played in total.
H2H Jan Gembala 4–2 Dalibor Velky Jr Dalibor Velky Jr has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 23h before this match
Gembala beat Velky Jr 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:4368.3%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 3.1pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Gembala
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Gembala
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gembala 1674 vs Velky Jr 1588
Gembala
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gembala 60% vs Velky Jr 20%
Gembala
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gembala 60% vs Velky Jr 40%
Gembala
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gembala +1 · Velky Jr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Gembala) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Velky Jr form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGembala 1.40 / Velky Jr 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Gembala)-3.1pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13261704
Gembala1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 81 of 145
Up 2–0, closes it96% 50 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it81% 66 of 82
Velky Jr2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog47% won 119 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back24% 29 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeGembala4wins
AwayVelky Jr2wins
1 of 6 to a deciderGembala leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGembala100%4 of 4
AwayVelky Jrn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gembala4Velky Jr2n = 6Gembala took 4 of 6
S2Gembala5Velky Jr1n = 6Gembala took 5 of 6
S3Gembala3Velky Jr3n = 6split evenly
S4Gembala3Velky Jr1n = 4Gembala took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricGembalaVelky JrG − VBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match38.533.3+5.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGembalaVelky JrBasisWin rate · lifetime213 / 391 vs 300 / 60754.5%49.4%213 / 391 vs 300 / 607Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GembalaGembala 1.40/Velky Jr 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.3%
Gembala · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Gembala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WOct 7 · 07:10J. Gembala331111113D. Velky Jr204790
WSep 28 · 17:45J. Gembala4011117113D. Velky Jr31491171
WSep 8 · 07:10J. Gembala45111211113D. Velky Jr39714991
WAug 5 · 09:14J. Gembala361411113D. Velky Jr2212820
LAug 5 · 05:40J. Gembala29411591D. Velky Jr3911611113
LMay 1 · 05:45J. Gembala48411131282D. Velky Jr491121510113
J. Gembala10
LOct 8 · 07:45J. Gembala1.5781080J. Krupnik2.251112113WOct 8 · 06:45J. Gembala1.611111113R. Benes2.209770WOct 7 · 09:15J. Skvrna1.80113941J. Gembala1.9161111113LOct 7 · 07:40J. Skvrna1.6781111133J. Gembala2.101198111WOct 7 · 07:10D. Velky Jr2.634790J. Gembala1.441111113WOct 7 · 06:10J. Gembala1.6711911113L. Slavik2.10811671LSep 28 · 21:18J. Gembala1.91111158122L. Slavik1.80561111143WSep 28 · 19:45J. Gembala1.671111163J. Krupnik2.1097140LSep 28 · 18:45J. Gembala1.737114121L. Slavik2.0011911143WSep 28 · 17:45J. Gembala1.4011117113D. Velky Jr2.75491171
D. Velky Jr10
WOct 8 · 07:15D. Velky Jr2.10121012113J. Krupnik1.6710121091LOct 7 · 08:44D. Velky Jr1.83141191192L. Slavik1.83169118113WOct 7 · 08:10L. Slavik1.531248121D. Velky Jr2.38101111143LOct 7 · 07:10D. Velky Jr2.634790J. Gembala1.441111113LOct 7 · 05:40J. Skvrna1.611111113D. Velky Jr2.209980LOct 6 · 09:08T. Krenek1.671112911113D. Velky Jr2.10710111362WOct 6 · 08:10D. Velky Jr1.8071111133R. Sedlacek1.911187111WOct 6 · 06:40M. Moravec1.67715111142D. Velky Jr2.10111749113LOct 6 · 06:10T. Krenek1.67711511113D. Velky Jr2.1011911952LSep 28 · 17:45J. Gembala1.4011117113D. Velky Jr2.75491171
Upcoming Matches
J. Gembala
Nothing scheduled
D. Velky Jr
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