TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jiri Matus vs Patrik Jokiel 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
71181112101113––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:07 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeJiri Matus to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Matus above · Patrik Jokiel below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 83 set 4, 11-13 · our read held Jiri Matus at 59.7%
83 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Matus 3–4 Patrik Jokiel Jiri Matus has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:0759.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Matus
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matus 1462 vs Jokiel 1400
Matus
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matus 60% vs Jokiel 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matus 60% vs Jokiel 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matus +3 · Jokiel +1
Matus
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Matus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jokiel form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatus 1.571 / Jokiel 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Matus)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13261636
Matus1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 06)
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 92 of 155
Up 2–0, closes it91% 41 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it76% 67 of 88
Jokiel2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 06)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 76 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back35% 27 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back14% 4 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMatus3wins
AwayJokiel4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderJokiel leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatus60%3 of 5
AwayJokieln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matus5Jokiel2n = 7Matus took 5 of 7
S2Matus4Jokiel3n = 7Matus took 4 of 7
S3Matus5Jokiel2n = 7Matus took 5 of 7
S4Matus1Jokiel4n = 5Jokiel took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricMatusJokielM − JBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match39.038.0+1.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatusJokielBasisWin rate · lifetime247 / 468 vs 228 / 49352.8%46.3%247 / 468 vs 228 / 493Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MatusMatus 1.57/Jokiel 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Matus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jokiel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LOct 8 · 06:10J. Matus387812111P. Jokiel45111110133
LOct 6 · 06:15J. Matus40111151032P. Jokiel49961112113
WOct 2 · 08:10J. Matus341211113P. Jokiel2110650
WSep 17 · 08:45J. Matus4111811113P. Jokiel28411761
WSep 17 · 05:40J. Matus371115113P. Jokiel2571350
LJun 7 · 08:10J. Matus35911871P. Jokiel4211911113
LMar 5 · 20:10J. Matus4814513792P. Jokiel5612111111113
J. Matus10
LOct 8 · 07:40O. Skvor1.7311116113J. Matus2.00971191WOct 8 · 07:10L. Krupnik Jr2.38111281172J. Matus1.53814114113WOct 6 · 08:54J. Matus1.831111811113O. Skvor1.8371311452WOct 6 · 07:45O. Skvor1.4011115842J. Matus2.75591111113WOct 6 · 07:15A. Strelec1.9176121192J. Matus1.801111106113LOct 6 · 06:15J. Matus1.50111151032P. Jokiel2.50961112113LOct 5 · 09:18O. Skvor1.36491111113J. Matus3.0011119262LOct 5 · 07:40J. Matus2.2551150O. Skvor1.571113113LOct 5 · 06:40J. Matus1.8071612962A. Strelec1.9111141011113WOct 5 · 05:40J. Matus1.611311113L. Krupnik Jr2.2011950
P. Jokiel10
LOct 8 · 06:40O. Skvor1.611111113P. Jokiel2.206680WOct 6 · 09:25P. Jokiel1.6111137113A. Strelec2.207111191LOct 6 · 08:15P. Jokiel1.5091112962A. Strelec2.501161011113WOct 6 · 06:45O. Skvor1.539730P. Jokiel2.381111113WOct 6 · 06:15J. Matus1.50111151032P. Jokiel2.50961112113LOct 4 · 17:10V. Molin1.8361111113P. Jokiel1.87112751WOct 4 · 15:45V. Molin1.61911971P. Jokiel2.2011811113LOct 4 · 15:15P. Sturma2.25181211113P. Jokiel1.572010991WOct 4 · 14:15P. Jokiel1.571111113A. Strelec2.257490LOct 2 · 13:10P. Jokiel1.4011112101P. Sturma2.7581311123
Upcoming Matches
J. Matus
Nothing scheduled
P. Jokiel
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