TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Ivan Kolenciak vs Alois Kanak 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114119113––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:23 and never touched: 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeIvan Kolenciak to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Kolenciak above · Alois Kanak below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 49 set 3, 11-3 · our read held Ivan Kolenciak at 56.9%
49 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kolenciak 8–3 Alois Kanak Alois Kanak has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Kolenciak beat Kanak 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:2356.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kolenciak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-3 in 11
Kolenciak
Correct
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolenciak 1184 vs Kanak 1190
Kanak
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolenciak 80% vs Kanak 60%
Kolenciak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolenciak 50% vs Kanak 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolenciak +4 · Kanak +1
Kolenciak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Kolenciak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolenciak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolenciak 1.727 / Kanak 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Kolenciak)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13260702
Kolenciak1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite47% won 23 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it67% 18 of 27
Kanak2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 25 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back11% 4 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolenciak7wins
AwayKanak3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKolenciak leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolenciak100%6 of 6
AwayKanak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolenciak6Kanak4n = 10Kolenciak took 6 of 10
S2Kolenciak7Kanak3n = 10Kolenciak took 7 of 10
S3Kolenciak4Kanak5n = 9Kanak took 5 of 9
S4Kolenciak3Kanak2n = 5Kolenciak took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolenciakKanakKolenciak − KanakBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.534.1+0.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolenciakKanakBasisWin rate · lifetime89 / 195 vs 125 / 26745.6%46.8%89 / 195 vs 125 / 267Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolenciakKolenciak 1.73/Kanak 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.9%
Kolenciak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kolenciak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WOct 7 · 15:30I. Kolenciak43411611113A. Kanak4111511772
WSep 18 · 11:30I. Kolenciak4111118113A. Kanak36881191
LSep 6 · 10:00I. Kolenciak327111041A. Kanak4111712113
LMar 8 · 10:00I. Kolenciak165830A. Kanak331111113
WMar 8 · 08:00I. Kolenciak331111113A. Kanak133460
WOct 5 · 11:00I. Kolenciak381116113A. Kanak3291490
LSep 30 · 13:30I. Kolenciak30841171A. Kanak4211119113
WSep 26 · 10:00I. Kolenciak43111110113A. Kanak35791271
I. Kolenciak10
WOct 7 · 16:30I. Palmi2.001312561I. Kolenciak1.73151011113WOct 7 · 15:30I. Kolenciak1.85411611113A. Kanak1.8511511772WOct 7 · 14:30M. Stolba1.83169111182I. Kolenciak1.831411713113WOct 5 · 13:00I. Palmi1.73108111192I. Kolenciak2.00121184113LOct 5 · 12:30I. Kolenciak1.532640M. Stolba2.381111113LOct 5 · 11:00I. Kolenciak1.73129551I. Palmi2.00101111113LOct 5 · 10:00M. Derco1.4411811113I. Kolenciak2.63511761LSep 18 · 13:00J. Toth1.67118118113I. Kolenciak2.1061171182LSep 18 · 12:30I. Palmi2.2511715113I. Kolenciak1.572111381WSep 18 · 11:30I. Kolenciak1.8011118113A. Kanak1.91881191
A. Kanak10
WOct 7 · 16:00A. Kanak1.91912115133M. Stolba1.801110911112LOct 7 · 15:30I. Kolenciak1.85411611113A. Kanak1.8511511772WOct 7 · 14:00A. Kanak1.6111119113I. Palmi2.20741191WSep 30 · 08:58J. Toth1.672660A. Kanak2.101111113LSep 30 · 08:30A. Kanak1.73113751M. Stolba2.0071111113LSep 30 · 07:00A. Kanak2.00611671J. Toth1.7311711113LSep 30 · 06:00Z. Luksa1.61118817113A. Kanak2.20811111592WSep 29 · 13:30Z. Luksa1.61111191182A. Kanak2.20134113113LSep 29 · 12:30J. Toth1.911111113A. Kanak1.806990LSep 18 · 11:30I. Kolenciak1.8011118113A. Kanak1.91881191
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