TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marek Tkocz vs Grzegorz Jurowicz 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911118911115511
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:47 and never touched: 65.5% is still 65.5%
Graded at full timeMarek Tkocz to win
65.5%
65.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
911118911115511
H2H Marek Tkocz 8–10 Grzegorz Jurowicz Marek Tkocz has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:4765.5%Our read54.3%to break even at 1.84
clears by 11.2pp54.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.84 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.84 (50%)
Tkocz
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-10 in 18
Jurowicz
Correct
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkocz 1450 vs Jurowicz 1344
Tkocz
Wrong
both rated, 106 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkocz 60% vs Jurowicz 80%
Jurowicz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkocz 80% vs Jurowicz 60%
Tkocz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkocz -2 · Jurowicz +4
Jurowicz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Tkocz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jurowicz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkocz 1.84 / Jurowicz 1.87
Signal prob.66% / 35%
Edge (Tkocz)+11.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13259023
Tkocz1.84
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 07)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 287 of 422
Up 2–0, closes it95% 162 of 170
Up 1–0, closes it86% 241 of 279
Jurowicz1.87
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 07)
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 91 of 248
Down 0–1, comes back19% 31 of 160
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkocz4wins
AwayJurowicz6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJurowicz leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkocz100%4 of 4
AwayJurowicz100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkocz4Jurowicz6n = 10Jurowicz took 6 of 10
S2Tkocz4Jurowicz6n = 10Jurowicz took 6 of 10
S3Tkocz4Jurowicz6n = 10Jurowicz took 6 of 10
S4Tkocz4Jurowicz2n = 6Tkocz took 4 of 6
S5Tkocz1Jurowicz2n = 3Jurowicz took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkoczJurowiczT − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.035.5−2.5per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkoczJurowiczBasisWin rate · lifetime780 / 1177 vs 331 / 82266.3%40.3%780 / 1177 vs 331 / 822Avg sets wonper match2.41.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.935.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczTkocz 1.84/Jurowicz 1.87
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.5%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jurowicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 7 · 02:00M. Tkocz189360G. Jurowicz331111113
WOct 6 · 16:00M. Tkocz4011117113G. Jurowicz32861171
LOct 2 · 00:45M. Tkocz4169111142G. Jurowicz46111167113
LOct 1 · 18:25M. Tkocz3867111132G. Jurowicz44111147113
WSep 25 · 02:00M. Tkocz331111113G. Jurowicz144460
LSep 24 · 18:00M. Tkocz247890G. Jurowicz331111113
LSep 17 · 22:50M. Tkocz30714451G. Jurowicz45111211113
WSep 17 · 15:10M. Tkocz48118117113G. Jurowicz4371191152
LSep 4 · 01:35M. Tkocz217590G. Jurowicz331111113
WSep 3 · 19:35M. Tkocz3711114113G. Jurowicz32871161
M. Tkocz10
WOct 8 · 17:10M. Tkocz1.461111113W. Pytlas2.554130LOct 7 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.809360G. Jurowicz1.911111113LOct 7 · 00:45M. Tkocz1.405660M. Adamus2.651111113WOct 6 · 23:35M. Tkocz1.181111113J. Nowak4.156940WOct 6 · 22:25A. Burkacki3.17711581M. Tkocz1.3111911113WOct 6 · 21:35M. Tkocz1.461112133P. Adamus2.50610110WOct 6 · 20:20M. Tkocz1.141211113R. Adach4.8010720WOct 6 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.8867120M. Tkocz1.821111143WOct 6 · 18:00W. Pytlas2.85251171M. Tkocz1.3611116113WOct 6 · 17:10M. Tkocz1.90811611113P. Kaczynski1.8011411782
G. Jurowicz10
LOct 8 · 16:50G. Jurowicz1.47118881R. Komandzik2.4061111113WOct 7 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.809360G. Jurowicz1.911111113WOct 7 · 01:10A. Burkacki1.9011761192G. Jurowicz1.75711119113WOct 7 · 00:25G. Jurowicz2.40891211123P. Adamus1.501111107102WOct 6 · 22:50G. Jurowicz1.73411118113J. Nowak1.9811771152LOct 6 · 22:00M. Adamus1.66101111113G. Jurowicz1.97126581WOct 6 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.54711711102G. Jurowicz2.35116118123LOct 6 · 19:10W. Pytlas1.6611118113G. Jurowicz2.05781161LOct 6 · 18:25G. Jurowicz2.405760P. Kaczynski1.501111113WOct 6 · 16:50G. Jurowicz1.541111113R. Adach2.258950
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