TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Radek Zeman vs Lukas Vich 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711811311––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:39 and never touched: 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeLukas Vich to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Zeman above · Lukas Vich below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 51 set 3, 3-11 · our read held Lukas Vich at 61.2%
51 points played in total.
H2H Radek Zeman 4–6 Lukas Vich Radek Zeman has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:3961.2%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.0pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Vich
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Vich
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zeman 1491 vs Vich 1530
Vich
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zeman 80% vs Vich 60%
Zeman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zeman 60% vs Vich 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zeman +2 · Vich -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Vich) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zeman form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZeman 2.375 / Vich 1.533
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Vich)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13258243
Zeman2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 35 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back18% 10 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 29
Vich1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
67%takes the first set · 6 of 9
As favourite54% won 34 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it87% 13 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it68% 21 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZeman4wins
AwayVich6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVich leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZeman60%3 of 5
AwayVich80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zeman5Vich5n = 10split evenly
S2Zeman5Vich5n = 10split evenly
S3Zeman3Vich7n = 10Vich took 7 of 10
S4Zeman2Vich3n = 5Vich took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricZemanVichZ − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.736.8−3.1per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZemanVichBasisWin rate · lifetime327 / 614 vs 240 / 51053.3%47.1%327 / 614 vs 240 / 510Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VichZeman 2.38/Vich 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.2%
Vich · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vich won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 19:50R. Zeman166640L. Vich331111113
LAug 21 · 19:50R. Zeman441110101122L. Vich52812129113
LAug 20 · 22:05R. Zeman3710111061L. Vich4112612113
WAug 20 · 19:50R. Zeman3831111133L. Vich381188111
LAug 12 · 18:50R. Zeman381164171L. Vich4871111193
WAug 5 · 21:23R. Zeman331111113L. Vich216960
WAug 5 · 19:20R. Zeman351111133L. Vich2788110
LAug 4 · 19:20R. Zeman173770L. Vich331111113
WJul 17 · 19:50R. Zeman49111188113L. Vich3936111182
LOct 4 · 19:20R. Zeman30119100L. Vich361311123
R. Zeman10
WOct 7 · 19:20M. Nemec2.754670R. Zeman1.401111113WOct 7 · 18:50J. Mach1.507950R. Zeman2.501111113LOct 1 · 22:25P. Cibik1.5711911113R. Zeman2.25811591WOct 1 · 20:55R. Zeman1.361151210113M. Nemec3.00411101232WOct 1 · 19:55R. Zeman1.5311119113M. Dlask2.38951181LOct 1 · 18:55R. Zeman2.75711191P. Cibik1.4011114113WSep 28 · 17:20F. Musil1.7371191182R. Zeman2.00114119113LSep 28 · 16:50R. Zeman2.25112551M. Zajicek1.5771111113WSep 28 · 15:20M. Nemec3.0045111172R. Zeman1.36111175113LSep 28 · 14:50F. Musil1.73115811113R. Zeman2.0051111882
L. Vich10
LOct 7 · 19:50L. Vich1.73611711122J. Mach2.00118114143WOct 7 · 18:20M. Nemec2.75116110L. Vich1.401311133LSep 30 · 22:00L. Vich1.738114111S. Matousch2.0011211133WSep 30 · 20:50S. Matousch2.10101111462L. Vich1.67128311113WSep 30 · 19:50L. Vich1.731111113J. Mach2.009790LSep 30 · 18:20P. Cibik1.8011121211113L. Vich1.91131014752LSep 23 · 21:59L. Vich1.910Z. Vyskocil1.803WSep 23 · 20:50Z. Vyskocil1.80117511102L. Vich1.91811116123WSep 23 · 19:50L. Vich1.4411116133M. Nemec2.638811111WSep 23 · 18:20M. Dlask3.25841171L. Vich1.3311119113
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