TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mariusz Adamus vs Adrian Burkacki 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111311119611117
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:47 and never touched: 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeMariusz Adamus to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
99 points played in total.
Set by set
9111311119611117
H2H Mariusz Adamus 14–6 Adrian Burkacki Adrian Burkacki has won 6 of their 20 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Adamus beat Burkacki 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:4758.5%Our read59.5%to break even at 1.68
short by 1.0pp59.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.68 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.68 (55%)
Adamus
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-6 in 20
Adamus
Correct
gap of 8 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1374 vs Burkacki 1252
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 122 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 100% vs Burkacki 20%
Adamus
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 80% vs Burkacki 30%
Adamus
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +6 · Burkacki -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Adamus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Burkacki form (20%) is below what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.68 / Burkacki 2.05
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Adamus)-1.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13257282
Adamus1.68
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 201 of 379
Up 2–0, closes it88% 73 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it70% 137 of 195
Burkacki2.05
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 51 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back16% 15 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus9wins
AwayBurkacki1wins
7 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 9–1, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamusn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBurkacki12.5%1 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus2Burkacki8n = 10Burkacki took 8 of 10
S2Adamus5Burkacki5n = 10split evenly
S3Adamus7Burkacki3n = 10Adamus took 7 of 10
S4Adamus7Burkacki3n = 10Adamus took 7 of 10
S5Adamus7Burkacki0n = 7Adamus took 7 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home770%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusBurkackiA − BBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match44.941.2+3.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusBurkackiBasisWin rate · lifetime790 / 1624 vs 135 / 37848.7%35.7%790 / 1624 vs 135 / 378Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match39.135.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.68/Burkacki 2.05
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 00:00M. Adamus51117911133A. Burkacki43611114112
WAug 28 · 04:00M. Adamus45411811113A. Burkacki4011511672
WAug 13 · 03:50M. Adamus51911119113A. Burkacki4311491182
WAug 13 · 00:00M. Adamus48691111113A. Burkacki4011118462
LJul 30 · 09:30M. Adamus32671181A. Burkacki4211119113
WJun 11 · 04:50M. Adamus4291111113A. Burkacki37119981
WJun 4 · 04:00M. Adamus42411511113A. Burkacki4611811792
WMay 6 · 22:50M. Adamus521161113113A. Burkacki4881171572
WApr 2 · 08:00M. Adamus4071111113A. Burkacki36118891
WApr 2 · 02:00M. Adamus46761111113A. Burkacki3711113842
M. Adamus10
WOct 7 · 02:20M. Adamus1.581311113J. Nowak2.2011590WOct 7 · 00:45M. Tkocz1.405660M. Adamus2.651111113WOct 7 · 00:00A. Burkacki2.00611114112M. Adamus1.71117911133WOct 6 · 23:10M. Adamus2.251610912113P. Adamus1.541412111082WOct 6 · 22:00M. Adamus1.66101111113G. Jurowicz1.97126581WOct 5 · 02:00G. Sawicki2.009121091M. Adamus1.73111012113LOct 5 · 01:10M. Guzik1.46111266113M. Adamus2.50410111172WOct 5 · 00:25M. Adamus1.80311169113P. Ostachowski1.86119141152WOct 4 · 22:50M. Adamus1.86911117113A. Ruszkiewicz1.8011761162LOct 4 · 22:00M. Sikon1.90121111113M. Adamus1.80144691
A. Burkacki10
LOct 7 · 02:45A. Burkacki2.506117141P. Adamus1.4411511163LOct 7 · 01:10A. Burkacki1.9011761192G. Jurowicz1.75711119113LOct 7 · 00:00A. Burkacki2.00611114112M. Adamus1.71117911133LOct 6 · 22:25A. Burkacki3.17711581M. Tkocz1.3111911113WOct 6 · 21:10A. Burkacki1.781311113J. Nowak1.9311750LOct 1 · 08:45O. Sokolowski1.85111011113A. Burkacki1.80812891LOct 1 · 07:35A. Burkacki2.55951151M. Lebek1.4511118113WOct 1 · 06:25P. Kurek1.605880A. Burkacki2.151111113LOct 1 · 05:10M. Jozefiak1.711111113A. Burkacki2.008560WOct 1 · 03:35L. Oracz1.52111011692A. Burkacki2.37512811113
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