TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Pawel Adamus vs Jakub Nowak 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1167118111513811
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:17 and never touched: 70.5% is still 70.5%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
70.5%
70.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
101 points played in total.
Set by set
1167118111513811
H2H Pawel Adamus 23–14 Jakub Nowak Jakub Nowak has won 14 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:1770.5%Our read74.1%to break even at 1.35
short by 3.6pp74.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.35 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.35 (67%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
23-14 in 37
Adamus
Wrong
gap of 9 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1300 vs Nowak 1200
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 99 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 0% vs Nowak 0%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 10% vs Nowak 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus -8 · Nowak -7
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Adamus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowak form (0%) is below what odds imply (37%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.35 / Nowak 2.70
Signal prob.71% / 30%
Edge (Adamus)-3.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13257053
Adamus1.35
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 8
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 219 of 348
Up 2–0, closes it98% 106 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it79% 165 of 209
Nowak2.70
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 7
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 244 of 675
Down 0–1, comes back21% 85 of 406
Down 0–2, comes back9% 21 of 244
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus6wins
AwayNowak4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus71.4%5 of 7
AwayNowak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus7Nowak3n = 10Adamus took 7 of 10
S2Adamus6Nowak4n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S3Adamus6Nowak4n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S4Adamus4Nowak4n = 8split evenly
S5Adamus1Nowak2n = 3Nowak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusNowakA − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.740.0+2.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime401 / 735 vs 665 / 175254.6%38%401 / 735 vs 665 / 1752Avg sets wonper match2.21.7per matchAvg pointsper match40.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.35/Nowak 2.70
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.5%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nowak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 06:25P. Adamus341111123J. Nowak2578100
LSep 25 · 02:45P. Adamus43101111111J. Nowak4312513133
WSep 18 · 04:10P. Adamus43111011113J. Nowak36912781
WSep 9 · 01:25P. Adamus591111129163J. Nowak521341011142
WSep 8 · 19:20P. Adamus4211119113J. Nowak37981191
WSep 7 · 00:00P. Adamus4312911113J. Nowak371011971
WAug 4 · 21:20P. Adamus391117113J. Nowak3391590
LAug 2 · 14:20P. Adamus43611115102J. Nowak45114711123
LAug 2 · 06:20P. Adamus32116691J. Nowak4291111113
LJul 7 · 03:10P. Adamus4912981192J. Nowak501011117113
P. Adamus10
WOct 7 · 02:45A. Burkacki2.506117141P. Adamus1.4411511163LOct 7 · 00:25G. Jurowicz2.40891211123P. Adamus1.501111107102LOct 6 · 23:10M. Adamus2.251610912113P. Adamus1.541412111082LOct 6 · 21:35M. Tkocz1.461112133P. Adamus2.50610110LOct 2 · 13:55O. Jadach1.8071111113P. Adamus1.91119971LOct 2 · 13:05M. Cesarz3.4011117113P. Adamus1.30841141LOct 2 · 12:15P. Adamus1.53911111282W. Urban2.38118714113LOct 2 · 10:35P. Adamus1.5011123692K. Schaniel2.509101111113LOct 2 · 09:50R. Skotniczny1.7311411113P. Adamus2.00811761WOct 2 · 08:35P. Adamus1.501115912113W. Urban2.50617111082
J. Nowak10
LOct 6 · 23:35M. Tkocz1.181111113J. Nowak4.156940LOct 6 · 22:50G. Jurowicz1.73411118113J. Nowak1.9811771152LOct 6 · 21:10A. Burkacki1.781311113J. Nowak1.9311750LOct 5 · 04:20J. Nowak2.9510750P. Kurek1.361211113LOct 5 · 03:05J. Nowak2.1868111162K. Kowalski1.62111199113LOct 5 · 01:55J. Nowak2.857850W. Urban1.351111113LOct 5 · 00:45D. Dytko1.551111113J. Nowak2.258570WOct 4 · 23:55J. Nowak2.801217113P. Gumulinski1.37101590LOct 4 · 22:20J. Nowak2.258770D. Dytko1.571111113WOct 4 · 21:05J. Nowak1.85711112113K. Kowalski1.8011591192
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