TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Skorski vs Bartlomiej Mrugala 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111012118811––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:37 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Skorski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
79 points played in total.
Set by set
8111012118811––
H2H Michal Skorski 11–14 Bartlomiej Mrugala Michal Skorski has won 11 of their 25 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:3754.0%Our read52.6%to break even at 1.90
clears by 1.4pp52.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.90 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mrugala
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-14 in 25
Mrugala
Correct
gap of 3 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skorski 1295 vs Mrugala 1232
Skorski
Wrong
both rated, 63 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skorski 40% vs Mrugala 20%
Skorski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skorski 50% vs Mrugala 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skorski +2 · Mrugala -3
Mrugala
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Skorski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrugala form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkorski 1.90 / Mrugala 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skorski)+1.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13255295
Skorski1.90
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 80 of 200
Down 0–1, comes back21% 25 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 55
Mrugala1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite58% won 55 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it86% 36 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkorski5wins
AwayMrugala5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkorski83.3%5 of 6
AwayMrugala100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skorski6Mrugala4n = 10Skorski took 6 of 10
S2Skorski3Mrugala7n = 10Mrugala took 7 of 10
S3Skorski7Mrugala3n = 10Skorski took 7 of 10
S4Skorski4Mrugala3n = 7Skorski took 4 of 7
S5Skorski1Mrugala2n = 3Mrugala took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkorskiMrugalaS − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.636.8+0.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkorskiMrugalaBasisWin rate · lifetime729 / 1510 vs 327 / 71448.3%45.8%729 / 1510 vs 327 / 714Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkorskiSkorski 1.90/Mrugala 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skorski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mrugala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 21:55M. Skorski30115591B. Mrugala4181111113
WSep 29 · 17:45M. Skorski4311811133B. Mrugala367117111
WSep 29 · 00:35M. Skorski49117119113B. Mrugala4171161162
WSep 28 · 18:30M. Skorski341112113B. Mrugala2071030
LSep 24 · 21:30M. Skorski349411101B. Mrugala4011116123
LSep 24 · 18:55M. Skorski4567111382B. Mrugala511111711113
WSep 16 · 21:30M. Skorski4111117123B. Mrugala367811101
LSep 16 · 16:55M. Skorski216870B. Mrugala331111113
WAug 22 · 00:10M. Skorski331111113B. Mrugala227960
LAug 21 · 17:20M. Skorski4696111192B. Mrugala48111169113
M. Skorski10
WOct 6 · 16:15M. Skorski2.3012168113A. Myszewski1.5510141151WOct 6 · 15:00M. Skorski1.6541111133K. Golaszewski2.051157111LOct 3 · 19:40A. Eliasz1.801111113M. Skorski1.853570LOct 3 · 18:55K. Sulkowski1.80121110113M. Skorski1.901091291LOct 3 · 18:10M. Skorski2.205780A. Mugowski1.601111113WOct 3 · 16:35M. Skorski1.801111113M. Trela1.869860WOct 3 · 15:50D. Poloszczanski2.05881161M. Skorski1.6611116113WOct 3 · 14:15M. Lukaszewski2.051451151M. Skorski1.7016119113LOct 3 · 13:25P. Maruszak1.75155914123M. Skorski1.9513111112102LOct 3 · 11:20T. Piotrowski1.621111123M. Skorski2.1541100
B. Mrugala10
LOct 6 · 16:55B. Mrugala1.681061151J. Rolak2.0512115113LOct 6 · 15:50B. Mrugala2.50511471D. Szlubowski1.4411911113LSep 30 · 00:35B. Mrugala3.649990K. Klocek1.241111113WSep 29 · 23:45J. Pruszkowski1.371041131B. Mrugala2.9012117113LSep 29 · 22:35B. Mrugala1.9113680J. Rolak1.801511113WSep 29 · 21:55M. Skorski2.00115591B. Mrugala1.7081111113WSep 29 · 20:05B. Mrugala1.581310118113J. Pruszkowski2.25111251172LSep 29 · 18:30K. Klocek1.451118711113B. Mrugala2.5092011772LSep 29 · 17:45M. Skorski1.8511811133B. Mrugala1.857117111WSep 29 · 16:55B. Mrugala1.83101111113J. Rolak1.87127681
Upcoming Matches
M. Skorski
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B. Mrugala
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