TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kamil Rudomina vs Rafal Stapor 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10125111210113119
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:00 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKamil Rudomina to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKamil Rudomina above · Rafal Stapor below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 94 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Kamil Rudomina at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Rudomina 26–18 Rafal Stapor Rafal Stapor has won 18 of their 44 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:0054.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Rudomina
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
26-18 in 44
Rudomina
Correct
gap of 8 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rudomina 1471 vs Stapor 1448
Rudomina
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rudomina 60% vs Stapor 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rudomina 60% vs Stapor 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rudomina +2 · Stapor -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Rudomina) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRudomina 1.80 / Stapor 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rudomina)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13248887
Rudomina1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 208 of 339
Up 2–0, closes it96% 98 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it77% 151 of 195
Stapor1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 113 of 315
Down 0–1, comes back17% 32 of 192
Down 0–2, comes back7% 8 of 111
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRudomina5wins
AwayStapor5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRudomina80%4 of 5
AwayStapor80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rudomina5Stapor5n = 10split evenly
S2Rudomina6Stapor4n = 10Rudomina took 6 of 10
S3Rudomina5Stapor5n = 10split evenly
S4Rudomina4Stapor6n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRudominaStaporR − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.537.8+1.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRudominaStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime965 / 2075 vs 727 / 129046.5%56.4%965 / 2075 vs 727 / 1290Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RudominaRudomina 1.80/Stapor 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Rudomina · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rudomina won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 20:30K. Rudomina31691151R. Stapor4211119113
LSep 13 · 22:55K. Rudomina30611761R. Stapor3611311113
LSep 13 · 20:05K. Rudomina29741171R. Stapor3911116113
LSep 2 · 14:20K. Rudomina401213781R. Stapor47141111113
WAug 31 · 22:35K. Rudomina4291111113R. Stapor30115861
LAug 31 · 00:35K. Rudomina4411911852R. Stapor49811811113
WAug 27 · 09:00K. Rudomina4411139113R. Stapor327111131
WAug 24 · 00:35K. Rudomina50119118113R. Stapor4051151182
WAug 20 · 11:50K. Rudomina4312119113R. Stapor281021151
WAug 20 · 04:00K. Rudomina4215115113R. Stapor351361151
K. Rudomina10
LOct 5 · 17:40K. Rudomina2.001181091A. Gromek1.7341112113WOct 5 · 15:00K. Rudomina2.20711711113J. Glanowski1.6111511722WOct 4 · 23:20R. Stapor2.50119791K. Rudomina1.4571111113LOct 4 · 22:35A. Linek2.1841111123K. Rudomina1.621157101LOct 4 · 22:15K. Rudomina1.50691311102K. Sulkowski2.401111118123WOct 4 · 21:05J. Glanowski1.801182101K. Rudomina1.8581111123LOct 4 · 20:30K. Rudomina1.84691151R. Stapor1.8711119113WOct 4 · 18:55K. Rudomina1.251111123K. Sulkowski3.4097100LOct 4 · 17:45K. Rudomina1.8814890A. Linek1.821611113WOct 4 · 16:15K. Rudomina1.9841112113M. Kukawka1.751171071
R. Stapor10
LOct 5 · 17:20R. Stapor1.8071191172J. Glanowski1.91115116113LOct 5 · 15:25R. Stapor1.7371060A. Linek2.001112113WOct 5 · 00:10R. Stapor1.83111211113J. Glanowski1.83714841LOct 4 · 23:20R. Stapor2.50119791K. Rudomina1.4571111113WOct 4 · 21:55R. Stapor1.721111113A. Linek2.008950WOct 4 · 21:30R. Stapor1.46111011113K. Sulkowski2.40712471WOct 4 · 20:30K. Rudomina1.84691151R. Stapor1.8711119113LOct 4 · 19:20R. Stapor1.8361111492J. Glanowski1.83119811113WOct 4 · 18:10K. Sulkowski2.909760R. Stapor1.371111113WOct 4 · 16:55A. Linek1.823780R. Stapor1.881111113
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