TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Zhyrnov vs Oleksandr Strutinskiy 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
113711911311––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:01 and never touched: 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Strutinskiy to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Zhyrnov above · Oleksandr Strutinskiy below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 66 set 4, 3-11 · our read held Oleksandr Strutinskiy at 67.9%
66 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Zhyrnov 8–38 Oleksandr Strutinskiy Oleksandr Zhyrnov has won 8 of their 46 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:0167.9%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 3.5pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Strutinskiy
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-38 in 46
Strutinskiy
Correct
gap of 30 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zhyrnov 1699 vs Strutinskiy 1678
Zhyrnov
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zhyrnov 80% vs Strutinskiy 60%
Zhyrnov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zhyrnov 70% vs Strutinskiy 40%
Zhyrnov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zhyrnov +1 · Strutinskiy +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Strutinskiy) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strutinskiy form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZhyrnov 2.75 / Strutinskiy 1.40
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Strutinskiy)-3.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245510
Zhyrnov2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 03)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 63 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back23% 16 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 41
Strutinskiy1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 03)
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 147 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it87% 73 of 84
Up 1–0, closes it72% 105 of 146
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZhyrnov1wins
AwayStrutinskiy9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStrutinskiy leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZhyrnov33.3%1 of 3
AwayStrutinskiy100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zhyrnov3Strutinskiy7n = 10Strutinskiy took 7 of 10
S2Zhyrnov3Strutinskiy7n = 10Strutinskiy took 7 of 10
S3Zhyrnov5Strutinskiy5n = 10split evenly
S4Zhyrnov3Strutinskiy5n = 8Strutinskiy took 5 of 8
S5Zhyrnov0Strutinskiy4n = 4Strutinskiy took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZhyrnovStrutinskiyZ − SBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.243.8−6.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZhyrnovStrutinskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime388 / 767 vs 426 / 82350.6%51.8%388 / 767 vs 426 / 823Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StrutinskiyZhyrnov 2.75/Strutinskiy 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.9%
Strutinskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Strutinskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 3 · 11:20O. Zhyrnov47121176112O. Strutinskiy481031111133
LSep 28 · 12:40O. Zhyrnov4018111462O. Strutinskiy541111912113
LSep 24 · 13:00O. Zhyrnov41101011101O. Strutinskiy4312127123
LSep 15 · 10:50O. Zhyrnov219840O. Strutinskiy331111113
LSep 12 · 11:20O. Zhyrnov4591251182O. Strutinskiy501110117113
WSep 8 · 12:50O. Zhyrnov4515127113O. Strutinskiy4313101191
LJun 19 · 09:20O. Zhyrnov366101191O. Strutinskiy3811124113
LMay 12 · 06:20O. Zhyrnov145360O. Strutinskiy331111113
LApr 3 · 12:50O. Zhyrnov46118116102O. Strutinskiy50911711123
LMar 31 · 12:20O. Zhyrnov37671591O. Strutinskiy46111113113
O. Zhyrnov10
WOct 3 · 12:50V. Savoliuk1.441310891O. Zhyrnov2.63111211113LOct 3 · 11:20O. Zhyrnov3.25121176112O. Strutinskiy1.331031111133WOct 3 · 09:20A. Derevianko1.40612791O. Zhyrnov2.75111011113WOct 3 · 07:20A. Nazarov1.57511110O. Zhyrnov2.251113133WOct 3 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.5098110O. Zhyrnov2.501111133LOct 1 · 16:40O. Zhyrnov1.44891181V. Merzlikin2.6311118113WOct 1 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov2.00912119113E. Hrytsenko1.73111071152WOct 1 · 13:40O. Zhyrnov1.4011114113Y. Holoborodko2.75831191WOct 1 · 12:10O. Zhyrnov1.501111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.505840LOct 1 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov1.83119961V. Maksuta1.8351111113
O. Strutinskiy10
WOct 5 · 12:10E. Hrytsenko2.251476101O. Strutinskiy1.57121111123WOct 3 · 12:20A. Derevianko2.103790O. Strutinskiy1.671111113WOct 3 · 11:20O. Zhyrnov3.25121176112O. Strutinskiy1.331031111133LOct 3 · 09:50M. Mrykh1.91914117113O. Strutinskiy1.80111281192WOct 3 · 07:50V. Savoliuk1.3691181282O. Strutinskiy3.001171110113LOct 3 · 05:50A. Nazarov2.2041211113O. Strutinskiy1.611110681LOct 2 · 12:20I. Nitchenko1.831351311113O. Strutinskiy1.831111111332LOct 2 · 11:20Y. Riadynskyi1.67641112113O. Strutinskiy2.10111141072WOct 2 · 09:50M. Mrykh1.91981111122O. Strutinskiy1.80111189143LOct 2 · 07:50A. Derevianko2.201111113O. Strutinskiy1.618760
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