TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Denys Pesternikov vs Serhii Rak 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
211511118118113
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:47 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Pesternikov above · Serhii Rak below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 81 set 5, 11-3 · our read held Denys Pesternikov at 60.5%
81 points played in total.
H2H Denys Pesternikov 94–57 Serhii Rak Serhii Rak has won 57 of their 151 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:4760.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 6.2pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Pesternikov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
94-57 in 151
Pesternikov
Correct
gap of 37 in 151, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesternikov 1786 vs Rak 1896
Rak
Wrong
both rated, 110 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesternikov 40% vs Rak 80%
Rak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesternikov 40% vs Rak 90%
Rak
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesternikov +1 · Rak +3
Rak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Pesternikov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesternikov 1.50 / Rak 2.50
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Pesternikov)-6.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245460
Pesternikov1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 03)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 222 of 335
Up 2–0, closes it94% 125 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it83% 179 of 217
Rak2.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 03)
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog30% won 38 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back13% 11 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePesternikov6wins
AwayRak4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPesternikov leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesternikov66.7%6 of 9
AwayRakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesternikov9Rak1n = 10Pesternikov took 9 of 10
S2Pesternikov6Rak4n = 10Pesternikov took 6 of 10
S3Pesternikov7Rak3n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S4Pesternikov2Rak3n = 5Rak took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPesternikovRakP − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match36.828.8+8.0per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesternikovRakBasisWin rate · lifetime590 / 1094 vs 548 / 98253.9%55.8%590 / 1094 vs 548 / 982Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovPesternikov 1.50/Rak 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pesternikov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 16:35D. Pesternikov4511961182S. Rak45611116113
WOct 2 · 00:30D. Pesternikov341211113S. Rak1410220
LSep 28 · 00:30D. Pesternikov33691171S. Rak4211119113
WSep 26 · 09:05D. Pesternikov391711113S. Rak2315710
WSep 22 · 05:35D. Pesternikov48111115113S. Rak34561761
LSep 21 · 13:05D. Pesternikov25113561S. Rak4071111113
WSep 18 · 00:30D. Pesternikov331111113S. Rak164660
WSep 15 · 05:35D. Pesternikov331111113S. Rak218670
WSep 14 · 13:05D. Pesternikov331111113S. Rak126510
LSep 14 · 00:30D. Pesternikov4511611892S. Rak41111711113
D. Pesternikov10
WOct 3 · 11:05D. Pesternikov1.3611811113D. Shcherbak3.00711831LOct 3 · 09:05Y. Kravets2.10115811113D. Pesternikov1.6761111772LOct 3 · 08:05D. Pesternikov1.0811711462O. Napirko7.00311811113WOct 3 · 07:05I. Kozachuk2.007840D. Pesternikov1.731111113LOct 3 · 05:35D. Pesternikov1.44111191092S. Rak2.63161112113WOct 2 · 18:05D. Pesternikov1.801111117113I. Kozachuk1.9186131112LOct 2 · 16:35D. Pesternikov1.4411961182S. Rak2.63611116113LOct 2 · 15:05D. Pesternikov1.614101181Y. Kravets2.2011128113WOct 2 · 13:35D. Pesternikov1.36511115113D. Shcherbak3.0011481172LOct 2 · 12:05D. Pesternikov2.505830D. Zeniuk1.501111113
S. Rak10
WOct 5 · 13:55S. Rak1.111111143O. Napirko6.0067120WOct 3 · 11:35S. Rak1.131111113O. Napirko5.504790WOct 3 · 09:35I. Kozachuk2.63971161S. Rak1.4411118113WOct 3 · 07:35Y. Kravets2.75591131S. Rak1.4011118113LOct 3 · 06:35S. Rak1.73113101172D. Shcherbak2.00411126113WOct 3 · 05:35D. Pesternikov1.44111191092S. Rak2.63161112113WOct 2 · 18:35S. Rak2.75111115113D. Zeniuk1.409131391WOct 2 · 16:35D. Pesternikov1.4411961182S. Rak2.63611116113WOct 2 · 15:35S. Rak1.6711811113D. Shcherbak2.10411781WOct 2 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.5012360S. Rak1.501411113
Upcoming Matches
D. Pesternikov
S. Rak
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.