TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Patryk Jedrzejak vs Lukasz Oracz 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
41114121191513––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:42 and never touched: 65.6% is still 65.6%
Graded at full timePatryk Jedrzejak to win
65.6%
65.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
89 points played in total.
Set by set
41114121191513––
H2H Patryk Jedrzejak 28–15 Lukasz Oracz Lukasz Oracz has won 15 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:4265.6%Our read69.4%to break even at 1.44
short by 3.8pp69.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.44 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (64%)
Jedrzejak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
28-15 in 43
Jedrzejak
Correct
gap of 13 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jedrzejak 1506 vs Oracz 1341
Jedrzejak
Correct
both rated, 165 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jedrzejak 80% vs Oracz 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jedrzejak 80% vs Oracz 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jedrzejak +1 · Oracz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Jedrzejak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJedrzejak 1.44 / Oracz 2.60
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Jedrzejak)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13242351
Jedrzejak1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite72% won 152 of 212
Up 2–0, closes it97% 87 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it82% 111 of 136
Oracz2.60
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 125 of 294
Down 0–1, comes back22% 35 of 163
Down 0–2, comes back8% 7 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJedrzejak8wins
AwayOracz2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderJedrzejak leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJedrzejak100%6 of 6
AwayOracz50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jedrzejak6Oracz4n = 10Jedrzejak took 6 of 10
S2Jedrzejak7Oracz3n = 10Jedrzejak took 7 of 10
S3Jedrzejak7Oracz3n = 10Jedrzejak took 7 of 10
S4Jedrzejak4Oracz2n = 6Jedrzejak took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJedrzejakOraczJ − OBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.835.1+3.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJedrzejakOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime366 / 541 vs 861 / 156867.7%54.9%366 / 541 vs 861 / 1568Avg sets wonper match2.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JedrzejakJedrzejak 1.44/Oracz 2.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.6%
Jedrzejak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jedrzejak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 06:45P. Jedrzejak4441411153L. Oracz4511129131
WJun 28 · 13:10P. Jedrzejak341112113L. Oracz2391040
WJun 28 · 05:30P. Jedrzejak45111110133L. Oracz408912111
LJun 21 · 16:20P. Jedrzejak269890L. Oracz331111113
WJun 21 · 06:45P. Jedrzejak49811117123L. Oracz45117611102
WApr 5 · 12:20P. Jedrzejak371412113L. Oracz31121090
WApr 5 · 08:20P. Jedrzejak47111312113L. Oracz439111491
WFeb 28 · 16:30P. Jedrzejak331111113L. Oracz177550
WFeb 28 · 10:30P. Jedrzejak4011711113L. Oracz32911571
LFeb 8 · 17:20P. Jedrzejak33991141L. Oracz4211119113
P. Jedrzejak10
WOct 4 · 08:20P. Jedrzejak1.321113133M. Malecha3.10911110WOct 4 · 05:30P. Jedrzejak1.831411113M. Oracz1.8712990LOct 3 · 16:20P. Gumulinski2.101111113P. Jedrzejak1.607880WOct 3 · 15:30D. Swider—11515101P. Jedrzejak—41117123WOct 3 · 14:45P. Jedrzejak1.57115911113R. Idaczyk2.2581111982WOct 3 · 13:10P. Jedrzejak1.27111111113R. Wojcik3.25133991WOct 3 · 12:20D. Morawiec2.6089100P. Jedrzejak1.421111123WOct 3 · 11:05P. Jedrzejak1.651261111143P. Gumulinski2.05141188122LOct 3 · 09:30P. Jedrzejak—61271152D. Swider—1110116113WOct 3 · 08:20P. Jedrzejak1.5681113163D. Morawiec2.3011811141
L. Oracz10
LOct 4 · 07:55L. Oracz2.208101181M. Oracz1.5711128113WOct 4 · 05:55L. Oracz1.331111133I. Szymanski2.9585110LOct 3 · 02:35K. Juszczyk1.831111113L. Oracz1.838780WOct 3 · 01:25L. Oracz1.6741111113M. Baron2.10118791WOct 3 · 00:10G. Sawicki2.506650L. Oracz1.501111113WOct 2 · 22:55J. Nowak2.104440L. Oracz1.671111113LOct 2 · 21:20O. Vincenec1.8061111113L. Oracz1.91115991LOct 2 · 20:30K. Kowalski2.63116711113L. Oracz1.4491111692WOct 2 · 19:20L. Oracz1.671114133M. Baron2.10812110WOct 2 · 18:10K. Juszczyk1.8071111882L. Oracz1.91118411113
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