TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ondrej Skvor vs Martin Lorenc 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7117111210811––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:38 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Lorenc to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Skvor above · Martin Lorenc below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 77 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Martin Lorenc at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Skvor 2–6 Martin Lorenc Ondrej Skvor has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:3854.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Lorenc
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Lorenc
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvor 1466 vs Lorenc 1451
Skvor
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvor 80% vs Lorenc 60%
Skvor
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvor 70% vs Lorenc 50%
Skvor
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvor +2 · Lorenc -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Lorenc) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvor form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvor 1.833 / Lorenc 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lorenc)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13240595
Skvor1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Lorenc1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSkvor2wins
AwayLorenc6wins
3 of 8 to a deciderLorenc leads 6–2, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvor50%2 of 4
AwayLorenc100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvor4Lorenc4n = 8split evenly
S2Skvor2Lorenc6n = 8Lorenc took 6 of 8
S3Skvor4Lorenc4n = 8split evenly
S4Skvor3Lorenc3n = 6split evenly
S5Skvor0Lorenc3n = 3Lorenc took 3 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricSkvorLorencS − LBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match37.239.8−2.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvorLorencBasisWin rate · lifetime103 / 199 vs 72 / 15751.8%45.9%103 / 199 vs 72 / 157Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LorencSkvor 1.83/Lorenc 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lorenc · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lorenc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 29 · 15:10O. Skvor4311711682M. Lorenc44611511113
WSep 5 · 17:14O. Skvor44111111113M. Lorenc30713551
LSep 5 · 14:10O. Skvor50111171292M. Lorenc53891114113
LJul 4 · 11:10O. Skvor4338111472M. Lorenc511111612113
LJun 20 · 11:40O. Skvor227960M. Lorenc331111113
LJun 9 · 13:15O. Skvor346123131M. Lorenc47111011153
LJun 9 · 11:45O. Skvor219930M. Lorenc331111113
WApr 18 · 16:10O. Skvor4111811113M. Lorenc27611821
O. Skvor10
WOct 4 · 09:40O. Skvor1.80711711113J. Sindler1.9111711982WSep 29 · 21:15O. Skvor1.671111113M. Janik2.106770LSep 29 · 20:10O. Skvor1.7351114101K. Zeman2.0011616123WSep 29 · 18:40D. Osvald1.838980O. Skvor1.831111113WSep 29 · 18:10M. Janik1.8389100O. Skvor1.831111123WSep 29 · 16:43O. Skvor1.8371111113M. Janik1.83119591WSep 29 · 15:40M. Janik1.8012711772O. Skvor1.911011711113LSep 29 · 15:10M. Lorenc1.73611511113O. Skvor2.0011711682LSep 29 · 14:10O. Skvor1.807115111J. Sindler1.9111611133WSep 27 · 20:39O. Skvor1.61911212113V. Reska2.20119111082
M. Lorenc10
LOct 4 · 10:10V. Molin2.1081111113M. Lorenc1.65117391LSep 29 · 17:13M. Lorenc1.61410190J. Sindler2.201112213WSep 29 · 16:10J. Sindler2.00812951M. Lorenc1.73111011113WSep 29 · 15:10M. Lorenc1.73611511113O. Skvor2.0011711682WSep 29 · 13:40M. Janik1.83881111162M. Lorenc1.83111189183WSep 26 · 16:49V. Reska1.33111110892M. Lorenc3.25691211113LSep 26 · 16:15M. Lorenc1.671181081T. Ogrocki2.1081112113LSep 26 · 14:45V. Reska1.731112113M. Lorenc2.0071060LSep 26 · 14:15J. Przybyla1.57911117113M. Lorenc2.2511881152WSep 16 · 13:20J. Sindler1.7363100M. Lorenc2.001111123
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