TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Viacheslav Simchuk vs Anatoliy Lysyi 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
114311117911114
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:09 and never touched: 82.7% is still 82.7%
Graded at full timeViacheslav Simchuk to win
82.7%
82.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingViacheslav Simchuk above · Anatoliy Lysyi below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 82 set 5, 11-4 · our read held Viacheslav Simchuk at 82.7%
82 points played in total.
H2H Viacheslav Simchuk 23–9 Anatoliy Lysyi Anatoliy Lysyi has won 9 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:0982.7%Our read83.3%to break even at 1.20
short by 0.6pp83.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.20 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Simchuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
23-9 in 32
Simchuk
Correct
gap of 14 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simchuk 1509 vs Lysyi 1199
Simchuk
Correct
both rated, 310 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simchuk 80% vs Lysyi 40%
Simchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simchuk 90% vs Lysyi 40%
Simchuk
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Simchuk -1 · Lysyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% · Strong (leans Simchuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysyi form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimchuk 1.20 / Lysyi 4.333
Signal prob.83% / 17%
Edge (Simchuk)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13240175
Simchuk1.20
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite75% won 108 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it98% 55 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it94% 79 of 84
Lysyi4.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 39 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back13% 8 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSimchuk10wins
AwayLysyi0wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSimchuk leads 10–0, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimchuk100%7 of 7
AwayLysyi0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simchuk7Lysyi3n = 10Simchuk took 7 of 10
S2Simchuk9Lysyi1n = 10Simchuk took 9 of 10
S3Simchuk7Lysyi3n = 10Simchuk took 7 of 10
S4Simchuk6Lysyi0n = 6Simchuk took 6 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSimchukLysyiS − LBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.929.7+9.2per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimchukLysyiBasisWin rate · lifetime285 / 460 vs 188 / 41562%45.3%285 / 460 vs 188 / 415Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.335.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SimchukSimchuk 1.20/Lysyi 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82.7%
Simchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Simchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 07:00V. Simchuk4011413123A. Lysyi3971111101
WJun 1 · 06:00V. Simchuk47711711113A. Lysyi4411911672
WApr 25 · 05:00V. Simchuk44101211113A. Lysyi391210891
WApr 24 · 09:00V. Simchuk4312119113A. Lysyi301021171
WApr 19 · 05:28V. Simchuk331111113A. Lysyi193790
WMar 26 · 10:30V. Simchuk351212113A. Lysyi27101070
WMar 20 · 09:30V. Simchuk3911116113A. Lysyi25751121
WJan 30 · 07:00V. Simchuk4181111113A. Lysyi30119551
WJan 13 · 11:09V. Simchuk331111113A. Lysyi206770
WJan 13 · 06:30V. Simchuk341211113A. Lysyi2410770
V. Simchuk10
LOct 4 · 12:00V. Simchuk1.2287111112O. Levytskyi4.00111169113WSep 29 · 10:30S. Honcharenko2.50104110V. Simchuk1.501211133WSep 29 · 09:30V. Simchuk1.501111113S. Honcharenko2.507880WSep 29 · 08:30V. Simchuk1.221111113E. Bakin4.004690WSep 29 · 07:00V. Simchuk1.2011413123A. Lysyi4.3371111101WSep 29 · 06:00V. Simchuk1.28111012113V. Matviichuk3.504121051WSep 28 · 17:28V. Simchuk1.6112101110113I. Dubinin2.20101211292WSep 28 · 16:00Y. Zvolynskyi3.2521590V. Simchuk1.331117113WSep 28 · 14:30I. Sorochan2.1011830V. Simchuk1.671311113WSep 28 · 13:00I. Dubinin2.0012911372V. Simchuk1.731011911113
A. Lysyi10
LOct 4 · 12:30A. Lysyi3.402990I. Sorochan1.301111113WSep 29 · 10:02A. Lysyi1.401111113E. Bakin2.759340WSep 29 · 09:00A. Lysyi2.101111113V. Matviichuk1.678370LSep 29 · 08:00S. Honcharenko1.401111113A. Lysyi2.759890LSep 29 · 07:00V. Simchuk1.2011413123A. Lysyi4.3371111101WSep 29 · 05:30E. Bakin1.28121111792A. Lysyi3.501091311113LSep 28 · 10:03V. Matviichuk1.8011511113A. Lysyi1.91611771LSep 28 · 08:30S. Honcharenko1.4011118113A. Lysyi2.75791161WSep 28 · 07:30A. Lysyi2.10114711133V. Matviichuk1.67411112112LSep 28 · 06:30V. Khyzhnyak5.0011912113A. Lysyi1.149111091
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.