TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Marcel Pikous vs Jiri Louda 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6112111012––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcel Pikous to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarcel Pikous above · Jiri Louda below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 52 set 3, 10-12 · our read held Marcel Pikous at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Pikous 75–82 Jiri Louda Marcel Pikous has won 75 of their 157 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Pikous beat Louda 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:2854.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Louda
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
75-82 in 157
Louda
Correct
gap of 7 in 157, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pikous 1667 vs Louda 1643
Pikous
Wrong
both rated, 24 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pikous 80% vs Louda 60%
Pikous
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pikous 70% vs Louda 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pikous +4 · Louda -1
Pikous
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Pikous) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pikous form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPikous 1.909 / Louda 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pikous)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13239703
Pikous1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 44 of 98
Down 0–1, comes back24% 13 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Louda1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite55% won 183 of 332
Up 2–0, closes it88% 84 of 96
Up 1–0, closes it73% 138 of 190
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePikous7wins
AwayLouda3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPikous leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePikous83.3%5 of 6
AwayLouda50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pikous6Louda4n = 10Pikous took 6 of 10
S2Pikous5Louda5n = 10split evenly
S3Pikous5Louda5n = 10split evenly
S4Pikous6Louda2n = 8Pikous took 6 of 8
S5Pikous2Louda2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPikousLoudaP − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.137.4+1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPikousLoudaBasisWin rate · lifetime376 / 707 vs 615 / 120553.2%51%376 / 707 vs 615 / 1205Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PikousPikous 1.91/Louda 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Pikous · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Louda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 2 · 14:00M. Pikous44811411102J. Louda43113116123
WOct 1 · 19:00M. Pikous47712116113J. Louda48111091172
WSep 30 · 17:30M. Pikous4311911123J. Louda366119101
LSep 30 · 16:30M. Pikous4111951152J. Louda48711118113
LSep 28 · 14:00M. Pikous186390J. Louda331111113
WSep 28 · 02:58M. Pikous341111123J. Louda2275100
WSep 28 · 02:30M. Pikous4011711113J. Louda29411591
WSep 24 · 21:00M. Pikous481141110123J. Louda45711512102
WSep 24 · 20:00M. Pikous3711114113J. Louda33781171
M. Pikous10
WOct 3 · 16:00M. Pikous1.3611916113J. Zuzanek3.008111461WOct 3 · 15:30M. Sychra2.201111371M. Pikous1.6191311113WOct 3 · 14:00M. Pikous1.83911911113J. Louda1.8311711812WOct 2 · 17:12M. Pikous1.431111113V. Vejvoda2.605940LOct 2 · 16:00M. Pikous1.837101191R. Wagner1.8311128113WOct 2 · 15:30V. Vejvoda2.63413761M. Pikous1.44111111113LOct 2 · 14:00M. Pikous1.91811411102J. Louda1.80113116123WOct 1 · 21:00M. Sychra1.8311101212112M. Pikous1.8313121010133LOct 1 · 20:00S. Kasnik2.50931112113M. Pikous1.50111181092WOct 1 · 19:00J. Louda1.83111091172M. Pikous1.83712116113
J. Louda10
LOct 3 · 16:30J. Louda1.57111461242M. Sychra2.256121114113WOct 3 · 15:00J. Louda1.5371111113J. Zuzanek2.38115631LOct 3 · 14:00M. Pikous1.83911911113J. Louda1.8311711812WOct 2 · 17:30R. Wagner1.6311115952J. Louda2.15871111113WOct 2 · 16:30J. Louda1.4411159123V. Vejvoda2.6331311101LOct 2 · 15:00J. Louda2.00117591R. Wagner1.7391111113WOct 2 · 14:00M. Pikous1.91811411102J. Louda1.80113116123WOct 1 · 21:30S. Kasnik2.2077111292J. Louda1.601111810113WOct 1 · 20:30J. Louda1.611110118113M. Sychra2.2091231172LOct 1 · 19:00J. Louda1.83111091172M. Pikous1.83712116113
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