TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Cabis vs Matej Grundel 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111168111311511
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:50 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Grundel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Cabis above · Matej Grundel below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 96 set 5, 5-11 · our read held Matej Grundel at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Michal Cabis 11–14 Matej Grundel Michal Cabis has won 11 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:5054.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Grundel
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-14 in 25
Grundel
Correct
gap of 3 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cabis 1711 vs Grundel 1761
Grundel
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cabis 40% vs Grundel 60%
Grundel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cabis 40% vs Grundel 70%
Grundel
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cabis -1 · Grundel -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Grundel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cabis form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCabis 1.833 / Grundel 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Grundel)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13238586
Cabis1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Grundel1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCabis4wins
AwayGrundel6wins
7 of 10 to a deciderGrundel leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCabisn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayGrundel62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cabis2Grundel8n = 10Grundel took 8 of 10
S2Cabis8Grundel2n = 10Cabis took 8 of 10
S3Cabis7Grundel3n = 10Cabis took 7 of 10
S4Cabis4Grundel6n = 10Grundel took 6 of 10
S5Cabis2Grundel5n = 7Grundel took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCabisGrundelC − GBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match45.846.2−0.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCabisGrundelBasisWin rate · lifetime363 / 709 vs 176 / 33651.2%52.4%363 / 709 vs 176 / 336Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GrundelCabis 1.83/Grundel 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Grundel · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Grundel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 15:30M. Cabis47691111102M. Grundel50111179123
LSep 24 · 17:04M. Cabis44121111372M. Grundel541091311113
LSep 24 · 16:30M. Cabis56812617132M. Grundel6211101115153
LMay 13 · 17:29M. Cabis365111191M. Grundel4311138113
WMay 13 · 14:00M. Cabis4181111113M. Grundel36118981
LMay 8 · 11:00M. Cabis5391115992M. Grundel541181311113
WApr 3 · 15:00M. Cabis4291111113M. Grundel29114681
WMar 25 · 18:28M. Cabis49121178113M. Grundel45106111172
WMar 25 · 16:30M. Cabis49811118113M. Grundel4111561182
LMar 23 · 17:58M. Cabis41101111182M. Grundel48126811113
M. Cabis10
LOct 4 · 15:30F. Nadymacek3.5012118113M. Cabis1.281081171WOct 4 · 14:00M. Cabis1.33811118113R. Urbaniec3.2511351122WOct 2 · 17:10L. Prikasky2.02812451M. Cabis1.70111011113LOct 2 · 16:00M. Cabis1.731011611122P. Wawrosz2.00128116143LOct 2 · 15:30M. Grundel1.83111179123M. Cabis1.83691111102LOct 2 · 14:00M. Cabis1.575111271L. Prikasky2.2511914113WSep 25 · 20:59M. Navedla2.25881181M. Cabis1.5711117113LSep 25 · 20:30M. Navedla2.20118611113M. Cabis1.6191111692WSep 25 · 19:30M. Cabis2.10111274113R. Revay1.67910111152LSep 25 · 18:30M. Vavrecka2.0061111113M. Cabis1.73118781
M. Grundel10
LOct 4 · 15:00R. Urbaniec3.402111111123M. Grundel1.30114136102WOct 4 · 14:30M. Grundel1.571111113F. Nadymacek2.255780LOct 2 · 17:30M. Grundel2.059121141P. Wawrosz1.6811148113WOct 2 · 16:30L. Prikasky2.0011119862M. Grundel1.73681111113WOct 2 · 15:30M. Grundel1.83111179123M. Cabis1.83691111102WOct 2 · 14:30P. Wawrosz1.6711671172M. Grundel2.10611114113WSep 24 · 17:04M. Grundel1.571091311113M. Cabis2.25121111372WSep 24 · 16:30M. Cabis1.83812617132M. Grundel1.8311101115153WSep 24 · 15:30M. Grundel1.67137911133D. Tomica2.101111115112LSep 24 · 14:30J. Pilch1.7311311113M. Grundel2.00411591
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