TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Ogrocki vs Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911811116811––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:35 and never touched: 69.1% is still 69.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Ogrocki to win
69.1%
69.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Ogrocki above · Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 75 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Tomas Ogrocki at 69.1%
75 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Ogrocki 3–0 Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:3569.1%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 2.3pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Ogrocki
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Ogrocki
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogrocki 1488 vs Jnr 1337
Ogrocki
Wrong
both rated, 151 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogrocki 60% vs Jnr 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogrocki 60% vs Jnr 40%
Ogrocki
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogrocki -1 · Jnr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Ogrocki) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgrocki 1.40 / Jnr 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Ogrocki)-2.3pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13238112
Ogrocki1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite61% won 74 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it91% 39 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it74% 54 of 73
Jnr2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 25 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back36% 11 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeOgrocki3wins
AwayJnr0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderOgrocki leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOgrocki100%3 of 3
AwayJnrn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogrocki3Jnr0n = 3Ogrocki took 3 of 3
S2Ogrocki3Jnr0n = 3Ogrocki took 3 of 3
S3Ogrocki2Jnr1n = 3Ogrocki took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricOgrockiJnrO − JBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match40.326.7+13.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgrockiJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime252 / 520 vs 148 / 28448.5%52.1%252 / 520 vs 148 / 284Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OgrockiOgrocki 1.40/Jnr 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.1%
Ogrocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJun 19 · 18:45T. Ogrocki341111123J. Jnr2459100
WMar 21 · 22:25T. Ogrocki341111123J. Jnr1835100
WMar 21 · 20:45T. Ogrocki531111119113J. Jnr3866131122
T. Ogrocki10
LOct 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki1.6713911462J. Matus2.1011111112113LOct 3 · 17:40T. Ogrocki1.4412118882L. Krupnik Jr2.631081111113WOct 2 · 21:15B. Jonas1.83871191T. Ogrocki1.8311118113WOct 2 · 19:40T. Ogrocki2.00119912113D. Stefek1.73711111072LOct 2 · 18:40T. Ogrocki1.83118791B. Jonas1.8391111113WOct 2 · 17:40T. Ogrocki1.3011118113R. Benesz3.40781191LOct 1 · 21:08T. Ogrocki2.50117881K. Przeczek1.5091111113WOct 1 · 19:40K. Przeczek1.7311991172T. Ogrocki2.00911113113WOct 1 · 19:10J. Vanous2.109101181T. Ogrocki1.6711123113WOct 1 · 18:10T. Ogrocki1.611111129113I. Jemelka2.2082141152
J. Jnr10
LOct 3 · 18:10J. Matus1.5712711113J. Jnr2.251011391WOct 2 · 16:40J. Jnr1.081111123N. Makara7.2534100WOct 2 · 15:40F. Mandrysz2.6391591172J. Jnr1.441113116113WOct 2 · 15:10N. Makara1.9171240J. Jnr1.801114113LOct 2 · 14:10J. Jnr2.20961271P. Sturma1.61111110113LSep 26 · 12:50A. Strelec2.6351111113J. Jnr1.44117891LSep 26 · 12:10P. Chvojka1.801111912113J. Jnr1.9158111492LSep 26 · 11:10J. Jnr1.7312970A. Strelec2.001411113LSep 26 · 09:40O. Vaclahovsky2.0013115113J. Jnr1.731191161WSep 25 · 12:38L. Snr2.5041170J. Jnr1.501113113
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