TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jiri Matus vs Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210711113119––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:05 and never touched: 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeJiri Matus to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Matus above · Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 74 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Jiri Matus at 63.3%
74 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Matus 11–5 Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr has won 5 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:0563.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 0.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Matus
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-5 in 16
Matus
Correct
gap of 6 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matus 1439 vs Jnr 1345
Matus
Correct
both rated, 94 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matus 80% vs Jnr 60%
Matus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matus 70% vs Jnr 40%
Matus
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matus -1 · Jnr +3
Jnr
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Matus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatus 1.571 / Jnr 2.25
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Matus)-0.4pp
TT Cup · #13237684
Matus1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 88 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it75% 64 of 85
Jnr2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 02)
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 25 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back36% 11 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatus7wins
AwayJnr3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMatus leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatus100%6 of 6
AwayJnr75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matus6Jnr4n = 10Matus took 6 of 10
S2Matus6Jnr4n = 10Matus took 6 of 10
S3Matus7Jnr3n = 10Matus took 7 of 10
S4Matus3Jnr4n = 7Jnr took 4 of 7
S5Matus2Jnr1n = 3Matus took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatusJnrM − JBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.135.9+3.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatusJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime238 / 454 vs 148 / 28352.4%52.3%238 / 454 vs 148 / 283Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MatusMatus 1.57/Jnr 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.3%
Matus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Matus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 13:45J. Matus521310117113J. Jnr51111291182
LSep 1 · 00:10J. Matus4181111562J. Jnr44118311113
LAug 23 · 16:48J. Matus34911771J. Jnr4211911113
WAug 23 · 15:45J. Matus4211611143J. Jnr345116121
WJul 20 · 11:15J. Matus3741111113J. Jnr27117541
WJul 19 · 19:15J. Matus541411117113J. Jnr50128131162
LJul 1 · 21:15J. Matus238690J. Jnr331111113
WJul 1 · 17:45J. Matus4111712113J. Jnr399111091
WJun 19 · 20:15J. Matus331111113J. Jnr142930
WJun 16 · 05:45J. Matus341211113J. Jnr2510870
J. Matus10
WOct 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki1.6713911462J. Matus2.1011111112113WOct 3 · 19:10L. Krupnik Jr2.101411851J. Matus1.67121311113LOct 2 · 09:10J. Matus2.1061170P. Chlad1.651113113WOct 2 · 08:10P. Jokiel2.2510650J. Matus1.571211113WOct 2 · 07:10J. Matus2.0091111113J. Sindler1.73119691WOct 2 · 05:40P. Chlad1.6111115972J. Matus2.20771111113WOct 1 · 09:25J. Matus2.101111119113O. Vaclahovsky1.6755131172LOct 1 · 07:45P. Chlad1.6741212123J. Matus2.10111010101WOct 1 · 07:15D. Stefek1.9151111742J. Matus1.80117711113WOct 1 · 06:15J. Matus2.10411811123O. Vaclahovsky1.67117113102
J. Jnr10
WOct 3 · 18:40T. Ogrocki1.40981181J. Jnr2.7511116113WOct 2 · 16:40J. Jnr1.081111123N. Makara7.2534100WOct 2 · 15:40F. Mandrysz2.6391591172J. Jnr1.441113116113WOct 2 · 15:10N. Makara1.9171240J. Jnr1.801114113LOct 2 · 14:10J. Jnr2.20961271P. Sturma1.61111110113LSep 26 · 12:50A. Strelec2.6351111113J. Jnr1.44117891LSep 26 · 12:10P. Chvojka1.801111912113J. Jnr1.9158111492LSep 26 · 11:10J. Jnr1.7312970A. Strelec2.001411113LSep 26 · 09:40O. Vaclahovsky2.0013115113J. Jnr1.731191161WSep 25 · 12:38L. Snr2.5041170J. Jnr1.501113113
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