TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Trela vs Dawid Poloszczanski 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811911118116119
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:10 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeDawid Poloszczanski to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
95 points played in total.
Set by set
811911118116119
H2H Mateusz Trela 19–14 Dawid Poloszczanski Dawid Poloszczanski has won 14 of their 33 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:1054.9%Our read54.1%to break even at 1.85
clears by 0.8pp54.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.85 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Poloszczanski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
19-14 in 33
Trela
Correct
gap of 5 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trela 1269 vs Poloszczanski 1289
Poloszczanski
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trela 20% vs Poloszczanski 40%
Poloszczanski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trela 50% vs Poloszczanski 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Trela -1 · Poloszczanski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Poloszczanski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poloszczanski form (40%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrela 1.85 / Poloszczanski 1.85
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Poloszczanski)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13235342
Trela1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Poloszczanski1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTrela5wins
AwayPoloszczanski5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrela100%5 of 5
AwayPoloszczanski100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trela5Poloszczanski5n = 10split evenly
S2Trela5Poloszczanski5n = 10split evenly
S3Trela2Poloszczanski8n = 10Poloszczanski took 8 of 10
S4Trela2Poloszczanski4n = 6Poloszczanski took 4 of 6
S5Trela3Poloszczanski0n = 3Trela took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricTrelaPoloszczanskiT − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.739.8−3.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrelaPoloszczanskiBasisWin rate · lifetime803 / 1640 vs 352 / 86249%40.8%803 / 1640 vs 352 / 862Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PoloszczanskiTrela 1.85/Poloszczanski 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Poloszczanski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Trela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 24 · 08:10M. Trela56179811113D. Poloszczanski52151111782
LMay 3 · 14:20M. Trela35981171D. Poloszczanski4111118113
WMay 3 · 05:40M. Trela6011111017113D. Poloszczanski5257121992
LMay 2 · 09:25M. Trela194960D. Poloszczanski331111113
LMay 2 · 05:40M. Trela33912571D. Poloszczanski43111011113
WApr 19 · 04:55M. Trela4211128113D. Poloszczanski388101191
LApr 5 · 04:30M. Trela199640D. Poloszczanski331111113
WMar 21 · 14:50M. Trela361111143D. Poloszczanski2347120
WMar 14 · 14:50M. Trela47111176123D. Poloszczanski49891111102
LMar 14 · 08:30M. Trela2031070D. Poloszczanski341112113
M. Trela10
LOct 2 · 22:35J. Lamperski1.45111211123M. Trela2.508142101LOct 2 · 21:05J. Glanowski1.5015117113M. Trela2.351371181WOct 2 · 20:30M. Trela1.781111113K. Sulkowski1.917960LOct 2 · 18:55M. Trela1.551191281P. Strus2.2581114113LOct 2 · 17:45M. Trela1.9511113992D. Szlubowski1.75811111113LOct 2 · 16:15M. Trela1.9512571172K. Klocek1.701011116113LOct 2 · 15:00M. Trela2.35118661J. Glanowski1.5251111113WSep 29 · 00:10M. Trela1.651213133W. Iwasyszyn2.101011110WSep 28 · 23:20M. Trela1.7013511113M. Kowalczyk2.001111871WSep 28 · 21:55M. Trela1.9392011113B. Mrugala1.781118681
D. Poloszczanski10
WOct 2 · 21:30K. Sulkowski1.8011611432D. Poloszczanski1.90611611113LOct 1 · 00:10K. Klocek1.801111133D. Poloszczanski1.9095110LSep 30 · 23:45D. Poloszczanski2.306670J. Lamperski1.521111113WSep 30 · 22:55D. Poloszczanski1.801111108113D. Kotwica1.9189121192LSep 30 · 21:05D. Poloszczanski1.764870M. Kowalczyk1.951111113WSep 30 · 20:05D. Kotwica2.0561090D. Poloszczanski1.701112113WSep 30 · 19:20M. Kowalczyk2.10117111382D. Poloszczanski1.601311911113LSep 30 · 17:20J. Lamperski1.5211138133D. Poloszczanski2.3071111111WSep 30 · 16:40P. Strus2.401169101D. Poloszczanski1.4771111123LSep 30 · 15:00K. Klocek1.609111114163D. Poloszczanski2.15115916142
Upcoming Matches
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D. Poloszczanski
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