TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Richard Wagner vs Ondrej Svacha 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111181517119115
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:11 and never touched: 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timeOndrej Svacha to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRichard Wagner above · Ondrej Svacha below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 15-17
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 105 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Ondrej Svacha at 57.5%
105 points played in total.
H2H Richard Wagner 4–2 Ondrej Svacha Ondrej Svacha has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Wagner beat Svacha 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:1157.5%Our read62.5%to break even at 1.60
short by 5.0pp62.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.60 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Svacha
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Wagner
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1750 vs Svacha 1697
Wagner
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 80% vs Svacha 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 80% vs Svacha 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner +3 · Svacha +1
Wagner
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Svacha) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svacha form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (63%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 2.20 / Svacha 1.60
Signal prob.43% / 58%
Edge (Svacha)-5.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13235159
Wagner2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog53% won 35 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back24% 8 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Svacha1.60
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 94 of 158
Up 2–0, closes it96% 54 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it80% 74 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeWagner4wins
AwaySvacha2wins
3 of 6 to a deciderWagner leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWagner100%3 of 3
AwaySvacha66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wagner3Svacha3n = 6split evenly
S2Wagner2Svacha4n = 6Svacha took 4 of 6
S3Wagner2Svacha4n = 6Svacha took 4 of 6
S4Wagner3Svacha2n = 5Wagner took 3 of 5
S5Wagner3Svacha0n = 3Wagner took 3 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home350%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricWagnerSvachaW − SBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match40.742.2−1.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerSvachaBasisWin rate · lifetime128 / 234 vs 403 / 80554.7%50.1%128 / 234 vs 403 / 805Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SvachaWagner 2.20/Svacha 1.60
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.5%
Svacha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WOct 2 · 21:30R. Wagner557111511113O. Svacha5011817952
WOct 2 · 19:00R. Wagner39116110113O. Svacha4381141192
WSep 29 · 01:00R. Wagner4211811123O. Svacha334118101
LAug 10 · 20:30R. Wagner173950O. Svacha331111113
WAug 5 · 03:30R. Wagner52117914113O. Svacha52911111292
LAug 4 · 22:00R. Wagner399119101O. Svacha4211811123
R. Wagner10
WOct 2 · 20:00R. Rose2.0031370R. Wagner1.731115113WOct 2 · 19:00O. Svacha1.6781141192R. Wagner2.10116110113WOct 2 · 18:30R. Wagner1.61119411113A. Brazda2.2041111562LOct 2 · 17:30R. Wagner1.6311115952J. Louda2.15871111113WOct 2 · 16:00M. Pikous1.837101191R. Wagner1.8311128113WOct 2 · 15:00J. Louda2.00117591R. Wagner1.7391111113WOct 2 · 14:31R. Wagner1.461111113V. Vejvoda2.556880WSep 29 · 03:30J. Tazler1.8711871182R. Wagner1.83811112113LSep 29 · 02:00R. Wagner1.5781111682S. Kasnik2.25116911113WSep 29 · 01:00R. Wagner2.2511811123O. Svacha1.574118101
O. Svacha10
WOct 2 · 20:30O. Svacha1.441110613113A. Brazda2.63412111152LOct 2 · 19:00O. Svacha1.6781141192R. Wagner2.10116110113WOct 2 · 18:00R. Rose3.004840O. Svacha1.361111113WSep 30 · 20:59O. Svacha1.80111210113O. Cmerda1.917101291WSep 30 · 20:30O. Svacha1.831111128113O. Cmerda1.8349141182LSep 30 · 19:00O. Svacha1.61812991M. Skakal2.20111011113WSep 30 · 18:00R. Rose2.75941191O. Svacha1.4011114113LSep 29 · 17:30J. Ruzicka2.0016911113O. Svacha1.731411731WSep 29 · 16:00O. Svacha2.2011119113R. Urbaniec1.61851181LSep 29 · 01:00R. Wagner2.2511811123O. Svacha1.574118101
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