TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Roman Merkl vs Matej Svitac 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
211117116411511
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:59 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeMatej Svitac to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Merkl above · Matej Svitac below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 79 set 5, 5-11 · our read held Matej Svitac at 58.9%
79 points played in total.
H2H Roman Merkl 8–8 Matej Svitac Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:5958.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Svitac
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merkl 1522 vs Svitac 1596
Svitac
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merkl 60% vs Svitac 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merkl 60% vs Svitac 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merkl +1 · Svitac +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Svitac) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merkl form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerkl 2.20 / Svitac 1.615
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Svitac)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234428
Merkl2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 90 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back40% 42 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back18% 9 of 49
Svitac1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 69 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it92% 34 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it75% 51 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerkl6wins
AwaySvitac4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderMerkl leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerkl83.3%5 of 6
AwaySvitac75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merkl6Svitac4n = 10Merkl took 6 of 10
S2Merkl4Svitac6n = 10Svitac took 6 of 10
S3Merkl5Svitac5n = 10split evenly
S4Merkl5Svitac5n = 10split evenly
S5Merkl4Svitac2n = 6Merkl took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerklSvitacM − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.443.3+0.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerklSvitacBasisWin rate · lifetime264 / 559 vs 219 / 39947.2%54.9%264 / 559 vs 219 / 399Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacMerkl 2.20/Svitac 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Svitac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 12:14R. Merkl52141313123M. Svitac48161111101
WOct 1 · 09:45R. Merkl45117313113M. Svitac43311111172
LSep 25 · 13:08R. Merkl28851141M. Svitac4111118113
LSep 25 · 12:00R. Merkl471151011102M. Svitac46711124123
WJul 19 · 10:15R. Merkl49118118113M. Svitac4281151172
LJun 27 · 18:30R. Merkl31841181M. Svitac4211119113
WJan 24 · 19:00R. Merkl4011117113M. Svitac33681181
LAug 31 · 10:30R. Merkl49611118132M. Svitac54118911153
WAug 25 · 14:45R. Merkl47116811113M. Svitac4471111872
WAug 15 · 16:00R. Merkl46111149113M. Svitac4049111152
R. Merkl10
LOct 3 · 11:30T. Hybl1.671311113R. Merkl2.1011670WOct 3 · 11:00R. Merkl1.8011118113V. Herrmann1.91661181WOct 1 · 12:14R. Merkl2.10141313123M. Svitac1.67161111101LOct 1 · 11:45R. Merkl2.205111181L. Kolman1.6111613113WOct 1 · 10:15J. Simek1.44611118142R. Merkl2.63119911163WOct 1 · 09:45M. Svitac1.53311111172R. Merkl2.38117313113LSep 28 · 08:48R. Merkl1.91861121T. Kanka1.8011114113WSep 28 · 07:45T. Kanka1.83411281R. Merkl1.83111110113LSep 28 · 06:45Z. Kuksa1.61111168113R. Merkl2.2095111142LSep 28 · 05:15P. Orlowski1.73111186113R. Merkl2.0058111182
M. Svitac10
WOct 3 · 10:30T. Hybl2.25117481M. Svitac1.5781111113WOct 2 · 12:49M. Svitac2.25111211113M. Hajek1.57614651LOct 2 · 11:45M. Hajek1.611111133M. Svitac2.2089110WOct 2 · 10:45L. Smazik1.9111811462M. Svitac1.80811611113WOct 2 · 09:15V. Lopata2.20541181M. Svitac1.6111119113LOct 1 · 12:14R. Merkl2.10141313123M. Svitac1.67161111101LOct 1 · 11:15J. Simek2.201211113M. Svitac1.6110380LOct 1 · 10:45M. Svitac1.67781251L. Kolman2.10111110113LOct 1 · 09:45M. Svitac1.53311111172R. Merkl2.38117313113WSep 25 · 13:08M. Svitac1.5711118113R. Merkl2.25851141
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