TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marcin Kowalczyk vs Adrian Myszewski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
31112109111311411
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:55 and never touched: 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timeAdrian Myszewski to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
95 points played in total.
Set by set
31112109111311411
H2H Marcin Kowalczyk 1–3 Adrian Myszewski Marcin Kowalczyk has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:5558.7%Our read61.7%to break even at 1.62
short by 3.0pp61.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.62 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.62 (57%)
Myszewski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Myszewski
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowalczyk 1304 vs Myszewski 1346
Myszewski
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowalczyk 80% vs Myszewski 60%
Kowalczyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowalczyk 60% vs Myszewski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowalczyk +2 · Myszewski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Myszewski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowalczyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (47%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowalczyk 2.15 / Myszewski 1.62
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Myszewski)-3.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13229070
Kowalczyk2.15
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 144 of 329
Down 0–1, comes back23% 38 of 163
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 75
Myszewski1.62
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 72 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it89% 32 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it78% 61 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKowalczyk1wins
AwayMyszewski3wins
Myszewski leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowalczyk2Myszewski2n = 4split evenly
S2Kowalczyk1Myszewski3n = 4Myszewski took 3 of 4
S3Kowalczyk2Myszewski2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricKowalczykMyszewskiK − MBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match32.534.8−2.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalczykMyszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime735 / 1496 vs 437 / 89349.1%48.9%735 / 1496 vs 437 / 893Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MyszewskiKowalczyk 2.15/Myszewski 1.62
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.7%
Myszewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Myszewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 21 · 23:20M. Kowalczyk331111113A. Myszewski198740
LSep 21 · 20:30M. Kowalczyk2367100A. Myszewski341111123
LAug 27 · 18:30M. Kowalczyk33961171A. Myszewski3611113113
LJan 15 · 17:25M. Kowalczyk41199671A. Myszewski50171111113
M. Kowalczyk10
WOct 1 · 16:15W. Iwasyszyn1.859750M. Kowalczyk1.851111113WOct 1 · 15:25M. Kowalczyk2.001111113J. Rolak1.715980LSep 30 · 23:20K. Klocek1.7581111133M. Kowalczyk1.951179111WSep 30 · 22:35J. Lamperski1.5091040M. Kowalczyk2.401112113WSep 30 · 22:15M. Kowalczyk2.0571114143D. Kotwica1.7011812121WSep 30 · 21:05D. Poloszczanski1.764870M. Kowalczyk1.951111113WSep 30 · 20:30K. Klocek2.116530M. Kowalczyk1.661111113LSep 30 · 19:20M. Kowalczyk2.10117111382D. Poloszczanski1.601311911113LSep 30 · 18:10P. Strus1.59111186113M. Kowalczyk2.2248111192LSep 30 · 16:55D. Kotwica1.738121110113M. Kowalczyk1.98111061292
A. Myszewski10
WOct 1 · 16:35D. Wrobel2.154880A. Myszewski1.631111113WOct 1 · 15:00W. Iwasyszyn1.859760A. Myszewski1.851111113LSep 22 · 00:10A. Myszewski1.9021111692K. Marchlewski1.75117811113LSep 21 · 23:20A. Myszewski1.608740M. Kowalczyk2.201111113WSep 21 · 21:55A. Myszewski1.501111123M. Durda2.4357100WSep 21 · 21:30A. Myszewski1.7491111113J. Przewlocki1.95116541WSep 21 · 20:30A. Myszewski1.701111123M. Kowalczyk2.0067100LSep 21 · 18:55A. Myszewski1.47117371P. Strus2.4001111113WSep 21 · 17:45A. Myszewski1.7411211113J. Przewlocki1.95811471LSep 21 · 16:15A. Myszewski1.7511761172M. Durda1.95911117113
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